Seems Cold but Fairly Typical Temperatures

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We are getting off to a chilly start this morning with some high cirrus clouds crossing the Alabama sky with temperatures generally around 30 degrees. A few spots were in the upper 20s this morning. Temperatures are not quite as cold as I thought they might be, but there is another reinforcing shot of cold air coming our way that will dip morning lows into the 20s by Monday and Tuesday. We should also see good radiational cooling with a clear sky and calm wind.

Temperatures probably feel a lot colder to us in Central Alabama because of the previous week of temperatures that were way above normal values for late November. How often do you see a 60-degree reading at midnight in November? That is actually above the normal high. Oh, and just for curiousity, the coldest high in Birmingham in 2006 has been 40 degrees on January 6th and the coldest low was 22 degrees on February 19th.

The 06Z run of the GFS is going to keep things relatively quiet and dry for the next several days – actually for much of the upcoming 7 days. Our next shot at precipitation is not expected to come before Thursday night, and even then, it’s not likely to be a major rain event with rainfall expected to be light.

For the next several days the upper air long wave trough over the eastern third of the US will flatten a bit keeping our temperatures at or slightly below seasonal values with lows in the 20s and highs in the 50s for the most part. A series of short waves will be moving through the main flow but with Gulf moisture cut off we won’t see more than some passing clouds from time to time. The end of the week does bear a little watching. The GFS has moderated on the strength of the low pressure system in the Gulf, and with that moderation, the extent of the forecast rain has diminished, too. This bears keeping an wary eye on it because of the cold air in place across the Central US. A classic pattern for a winter weather event is to have cold air in place and then develop a good low in the northern Gulf. The GFS is hinting at this though not as much as it was yesterday. I don’t believe at this time that we have any real concerns, but it is something we will want to monitor to see how the ultimate pattern actually develops.

The longer range forecast continue to maintain an active pattern. In fact, the GFS continues to be suggesting a continuing series of disturbed weather which is really what you expect at this time of year. Lower latitude short wave troughs, however, can eventually lead to surface lows in the Gulf requiring us to maintain a strong vigilance so we don’t get surprised by anything.

I’ve got a busy day today with the Helena Christmas Parade at 2 pm. Jason Simpson will be taking the Storm Chaser to Gardendale for their parade at 6 pm. Jason and I were going to do that one together, but I play the part of Reverend Hopkins in the Helena United Methodist Church production of The Best Christmas Pageant Ever so I’ll be getting into my costume while that parade is underway. If you are in the Helena area and want to see a fine Christmas play that captures the meaning of Christmas, why not join us at 7:30 pm tonight or at 3:00 pm on Sunday. Yes, yes, I know, a shameless plug – but the kids have really done a fabulous job on the play.

Stay warm and enjoy the sunshine today. I’ll be back with another Weather Xtreme Video tomorrow morning by about 8:30 am. Have a great weekend and God bless.

-Brian-

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts