Dean Sets Sights on Jamaica

NEXT STOP JAMAICA
Lots of prayers being offered up on the island of Jamaica through a long Saturday night of watching and waiting to see what Hurricane Dean does next.

The island has been amazingly lucky over the years considering its vulnerable location. Ivan did a miraculous side step in 2004. Gilbert was not at max power. Dean wobbled a little left in its track last evening and the official NHC track was shifted accordingly. Over the last few satelllite photos, the storm is just a shade north of the forecast. Right now, it will pass just south of the island by about 40-50 miles. Hurricane force winds extend out about 50 miles. So, we will keep our fingers crossed.

Hurricane warnings are in effect for Jamaica. Other effects will include large and dangerous waves, a 7-9 foot storm surge and 5-10 inches of rain with 20 inches possible.

FAST FACTS… 4 AM CDT
LOCATION…16.6 N…73.4 W or 245 ESE of KINGSTON, JAMAICA
MOVEMENT: WNW-18
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…921 MB/27.20 INCHES

INTENSITY TRENDS
Last recon was at midnight. Found 921 mb pressure and a flight level wind of 130 knots. Looks a little more ragged on satellite this morning. Dean’s winds may be down a bit due to core changes. But it is expected to become a category five hurricane later today.

CAYMANS
…Hurricane Warnings in effect…
Dean will be undergoing intensification to Cat Five status as it passes the Caymans early Monday morning. The GFDL model carries it about 90 miles south of Grand Cayman. Dean’s wind field may be expanding at that time due to the intensification. It will be a cat and mouse game to see how bad the effects are. The island is still recovering from Ivan’s rampage in 2004.

YUCATAN/COZUMEL
This will be a 900mb, Category Five monster by the time it gets to the Yucatan Monday night. The hurricane should pass about 60 miles south of Cozumel and 90 miles south of Cancun. Cancun and Cozumel were battered by slow moving Hurricane Wilma in 2005 that destroyed up to 95% of the tourism infrastructure. The recovery has been remarkable, and hopefully this will not deal a new blow to the area.

THE THIN BLACK LINE
Don’t get mesmerized by the thin black line. Although this hurricane has behaved well against the models and forecasts, there is still a large margin of error even on the relatively short term forecasts. 50-100 mile erros are common even with in 24 hours. So the islands and locations in the path have to be totally prepared and vigilant.

THREAT TO THE U.S.
The threat appears to be minimal at this time. The upper low is still visible on the waver vapor satellite imagery, spinning across the central Gulf. But the ridge appears to be holding strong. Model tracks overnight still are tightly clustered on a solution that carries the storm into Mexico about 120 miles south of Brownsville.

RECON
Air Force reconnaissance will be back in the storm around 7 a.m. CDT.

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