Gulf Tropical Storm Ahead???

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below. You can subscribe to the Weather Xtreme video on iTunes by clicking here.

Before we get to the tropical weather situation… let’s discuss short term weather for our state…

TODAY: The heat ridge hangs around today, temperatures aloft should be a degree or two cooler, so must maybe we will see an increase in the number of afternoon showers and storms today, but they should remain widely spaced. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, making today the 16th consecutive day with a high at or over 90 degrees.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The ridge slowly weakens, the air aloft cools a bit, and we expect an increase in the number of showers and storms. Highs will drop into the 89 to 92 degree range by Saturday and Sunday, and the chance of any one spot getting wet over the weekend will actually be about 50/50. As usual, the best chance of showers and storms will be during the afternoon and evening hours, but we will have to watch for outflow boundaries that could bring some late night or morning convection to the state.

NEXT WEEK: The GFS continues the idea of a long wave upper trough over the eastern U.S. next week, and drier, continental air moving into much of Alabama by Wednesday. But, that same trough could pull a tropical system in here, making things really wet at mid-week. Much will depend on our potential Tropical Storm Alex…

TROPICAL STORM AHEAD? The wave in the Caribbean remains disorganized this morning, but most dynamic models do bring this to tropical storm strength over the Gulf of Mexico at some point this weekend. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details, but it seems like shear will be light, and we all know the SSTs are very warm. The GFDL brings the storm to the mouth of the Mississippi River at the middle of next week as a category one hurricane, while the HWRF brings it to a point near Destin, Florida about the same time as a tropical storm. The Canadian prefers the middle Texas coast, while the ECMWF is very muddy and brings some kind of tropical low to the southern tip of Texas around July 3-4.

Nobody, and I mean nobody knows the ultimate destination at this point. Remember, early systems rarely become major hurricanes; they are usually more of a flood threat as they move inland as either tropical storms or minimal hurricanes. But, the water is very warm and anything goes here. We will keep a close eye on the situation, and interests on the Central Gulf Coast need to monitor developments in coming days. Scroll down for the oil spill FAQ… which should answer your questions about possible interaction with the oil in the northern Gulf.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

I will be doing a weather program this morning in Ohatchee at the public library… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Category: Uncategorized