Latest on tropical wave

There has been some chat around the weather arena this morning about a tropical wave in the western Carribbean, centered about 300 miles south of Cuba. NHC reports that they have canceled a planned hurricane hunter aircraft mission for today, due to a lack of any organization in the wave. However, they also point out that the environment will be favorable for tropical development over the next 48 hours, and give it a 40% chance of becoming a tropical storm (name would be Alex) this weekend. Wind shear is light, and sea surface temperatures down there are very warm (upper 80s).

Sea surface temperature (C)

Most of the models take the system NW, so even if it develops, it should move toward Texas or Louisiana. If it does, as James points out, storms this time of year generally do not become intense. The problem could be with the oil. A worst-case scenario, initially, would be an east Texas/west Louisiana landfall, so that south winds east of the storm would push oil onshore. However, the positive side could be heavy rain in the marshes of Louisiana, Mississippi, or Alabama, helping push some of the oil out.

Then again, this is a lot of speculation…it hasn’t even become a tropical storm, and may not. Just something to keep an eye on this weekend. If you have plans to go to the beach this weekend, this storm should have no impact.

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