Shower/Storm Coverage To Slowly Increase

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THIS AFTERNOON: Not much on radar this afternoon, although we note a strong storm near Alexander City and Dadeville as I write this around 3:00. Looks like the storms today are drifting southeast. Showers and thunderstorms will be very isolated through the evening hours as warm air aloft keeps the lid on.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: The upper high is forecast to slowly weaken, meaning rain chances will slowly increase, while heat levels will slowly decrease. Highs will drop into the 90-93 degree range, with a pretty decent chance of afternoon showers and storms all three days. Of course, we all know the rain distribution will be very uneven, but some neighborhoods could see some generous amounts of rain from the strong storms that develop.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS continues the idea of a long wave trough setting up over the eastern U.S. early next week as the heat bubble moves west. An approaching surface front should bring a pretty decent chance of showers and storms on Monday, and possibly Tuesday, followed by drier air on Wednesday and Thursday with lower humidity and cooler nights. You always have to be a little suspicious of this kind of forecast in summer, but there has been good consistency in the idea in recent days. We need to note, however, with a tropical storm in the Gulf, all bets are off…

WATCHING THE TROPICS: Our wave in the Caribbean shows little organization today, but there is still a good chance it becomes a tropical depression/storm in coming days. Watch the Weather Xtreme video and you will see there remains a big spread in model track guidance. The Canadian GEM, and the HWRF bring the system into the Central Gulf Coast by the middle of next week, which could, of course, mean a big wet down for us. However, the ECMWF and other dynamic models want to bring the system through the western Gulf toward the southern tip of Texas, well to the south of Alabama.

Remember, early season systems rarely become major hurricanes; the main threat is inland flooding. But, of course, with the oil in the northern Gulf, there is much more at stake with the placement and intensity of any tropical cyclone in the GOM. We will be watching with interest. Stay tuned.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids and parents at the Ohatchee Public Library this morning… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…..

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