Eye On The Tropics

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TODAY: A weak surface front is near the Alabama/Tennessee border this morning, and we have a few scattered showers on radar from near Fayette to Guntersville this morning. With a slightly weaker ridge, and some low level convergence associated with the front, we expect a general increase in the number of showers and storms today. It won’t rain everywhere; any one spot will have about a one in three chance of getting wet, with a high in the low to mid 90s.

WEEKEND PREVIEW: Looks like a mix of sun and clouds tomorrow and Sunday, with some risk of scattered showers and storms both days. More than likely Sunday will be the day with the best coverage of showers and storms, when any one community has about a 50/50 chance of getting rain. Highs over the weekend will be in the low 90s for the most part.

NEXT WEEK: Our weather will greatly depend on the future of the tropical system in the Caribbean. We will mention a pretty good chance of showers and storms on Monday and Tuesday, followed by drier, continental air moving into the state Wednesday through Friday, with lower humidity and cooler nights on those three days. This is assuming the main tropical moisture plume remains south of Alabama, impacting mainly Florida and the eastern part of Georgia and the Carolinas. But, with a tropical system involved, anything goes, and this could change.

ALEX IN THE MAKING? NHC now has a high probability of the tropical wave in the Caribbean becoming a tropical depression. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details. The system will have to cross Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, then emerging in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Now, most of the models are in decent agreement that the depression/storm will move north/northeast in response to a deep upper trough forming over the eastern U.S. The GFDL and the HWRF move the system into the Florida panhandle as a tropical storm either Monday night or Tuesday of next week. However, the Canadian and the ECMWF now take it to a point south of Brownville, Texas. The GFS keeps the system weak, but is in general agreement with the GFDL/HWRF, with the moisture mainly impacting the Florida peninsula.

A few important points…

*Early season tropical systems rarely become major hurricanes, and most models keep Alex as a tropical storm across the Gulf.

*The main impact will be heavy rain and the potential for flooding. If the GFS/GFDL/HWRF solution is correct, and I sure lean that way, the heaviest rain will be over the Florida peninsula, with little impact for Alabama.

*What about the oil slick in the northern Gulf? Hard to say at this point; for now see our oil spill FAQ for the possibilities.

*It is very early in the game and way too early to be specific with the ultimate destination of this. Much like thunderstorms, with tropical systems, expect the unexpected. Keep an eye on our forecast here for possible changes in coming days.

Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for more details.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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