Unsettled Weekend Weather

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RIGHT NOW: Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to move very slowly across the northern half of Alabama this afternoon. All of the storms are capable of producing local areas of damaging straight line winds, lots of lightning, some small hail, and flooding. Some of the stronger storms at 3:15 as I write this are on the Tuscaloosa/Pickens County line, near Centreville and Brent in Bibb County, near Alexander City, and also in Calhoun County hear Alexandria. These storms are really packing a punch today, but they will fade tonight after the sun goes down.

THE WEEKEND: We will deal with more scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow and Sunday as the air has become unstable. It don’t rain everywhere, but like today, where the storms form that will be strong. The storm coverage should be a little greater on Sunday, with highs mostly in the low 90s. Otherwise, expect a mix of sun and clouds both days.

NEXT WEEK: An upper trough will slowly form over the eastern U.S. early in the week, and we are looking at a pretty decent chance of showers and storms Monday, and possibly Tuesday with a surface front approaching from the north. Then, dry continental air drops into the Deep South Wednesday through Friday with lower humidity levels and cooler nights. Highs will be mostly in the upper 80s, with lows down in the 60s during the latter half of the week. The potential fly in the ointment remains the tropical system over the Caribbean.

WAVE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED: Convection is growing in the our wave in the Caribbean, and the system seems to be forming at a rather low latitude (below 20N). A lower latitude system will have a harder time getting involved in the upper trough that will form over the eastern U.S. next week, leaving the door open for this thing to cross the Yucatan, and then move west toward the Mexican coast (or maybe far South Texas).

The GFDL, HWRF, and the GFS still want to move the system toward the Florida Panhandle, while the GEM and the ECMWF favor the Mexico solution. Watch the Weather Extreme video for a detailed look… I am not sure I really favor either idea now that the system is forming below 20N. We will have a good idea on the ultimate destination over the weekend, when the wave gets off the Yucatan and over the warm water of the Southwest Gulf of Mexico. All interests on the Gulf Coast will need to keep an eye on this system, which should become Tropical Storm Alex at some point.

Again, we stress that early season systems like this rarely become major hurricanes, and the major inland impact will be heavy rain.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

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My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted early Monday morning by 7:00… Brian Peters, the internationally beloved meteorologist, will have the video updates here tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

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