Heat Headlines The Forecast

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HEAT IS THE WORD: Yesterday’s official high in Birmingham was “only” 93 degrees, but unfortunately the trend will be back toward the mid and upper 90s in coming days as the heat ridge goes nowhere.

Climatological records show the typical peak of the summer heat in Alabama runs from July 13 through August 10, when the average high in Birmingham is 91 and the average low is 70. Needless to say, temperatures this month have been running above average. Today will be the 23rd consecutive day with a high of 90 or higher; the hottest day so far was on July 23 when the high was 101. We have had only two days this month with a high under 90; that was back on July 3 and July 4 when the high on both days was a “cool” 87.

There is actually a little model madness today concerning the degree of afternoon convection; the GFS is very dry, while the NAM is fairly aggressive with the coverage of storms later today. We will split it and go with the standard risk of widely scattered storms today, with a high in the mid 90s.

TOMORROW THROUGH THE WEEKEND: No doubt there is always some risk of an afternoon storm on a hot summer day in Alabama, but the GFS continues to show drier air in here Friday through Sunday, with highs in the 97 to 100 degree range. At least the humidity levels won’t be overly oppressive, but the weekend will be awfully hot, with cooling showers rather few in number.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The 5940 500 mb height contour just won’t budge, so the heat will continue into next week, which isn’t exactly shocking considering it is early August in Alabama. But, toward mid-month, the GFS does show the core of the heat shifting westward with slightly “cooler” temperatures for the eastern third of the nation.

TROPICS: Still very calm out there this morning, and tropical storm is not expected through the rest of the week.

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