East Coast Hurricane Threat Ahead?

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I know all of the attention has been on Hurricane Felix in recent days, but we must turn our eyes to the system in the Atlantic, between Jacksonville and Bermuda. More on the tropics later… but first…

THE ALABAMA STORY: We do have showers on the radar this afternoon, and I think you have to mention a chance of widely scattered showers and storms tomorrow and Thursday despite the very dry GFS. The NAM has been the wetter model, and I believe that is the one to use. While the rain certainly won’t be widespread through mid-week, a few showers and storms will likely develop tomorrow and Thursday in response to decent instability levels, and a fair amount of moisture above the boundary layer (surface dewpoints remain low). Afternoons will remain hot; the high should be somewhere between 90 and 95 tomorrow and Thursday.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: We will maintain the chance of scattered showers and storms Friday through the weekend, despite a rather dry 12Z GFS run. A decent moisture field is just west of Alabama, and it won’t take much for it to work in here. The GFS has no clue that showers are in progress this afternoon, so I am not sure the moisture fields for the weekend are correct.

The wild card in our weekend forecast is the potential for a hurricane along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. If that does happen, and if the system is well developed, then we might be on the subsidence ring on the periphery of the hurricane, which would mean downward air motion and few if any showers. That remains to be seen, however, so we will go with a chance of scattered showers and storms for now Friday through Sunday with highs in the 88 to 92 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z run holds the surface front up before moving into Alabama early next week, which should mean an increase in showers and storms early next week, and no intrusion of really cool air that could get us into the 40s or 50s at night. Still looks like we will have to wait until late this month before that happens.

FELIX INLAND AND WEAKENING: Scroll down to read J.B.’s update on Felix… heavy rain and the potential for flooding and mudslides is the story for Central America for a few days.

HENRIETTE: This eastern Pacific hurricane is making landfall this afternoon at the southern tip of Baja California… sustained winds are 85 mph at this time. The moisture from Henriette is headed for the Southwest U.S. later this week; that might set the stage for heavy rain or flooding issues for places like Phoenix or Tucson.

GABRIELLE? Sure looks like the system in the Atlantic will become Tropical Storm Gabrielle before the week is over. Steering currents are very weak over in that region now, so it should drift slowly and erratically through Thursday. Then, a ridge builds north of the system, which will turn it back to the west, in the direction of the U.S. Atlantic coast. The GFS (which has performed very well with tropical systems this summer) brings the system to a point very close to Cape Fear, North Carolina on Saturday. The ECMWF (including the 12Z run, just in house), brings it close to Charleston, South Carolina as an intensifying system, possibly a hurricane. And, the GFDL moves the system parallel to the coast, but with no landfall. Another big player will be the approaching upper trough over the weekend and an associated surface cold front. When that begins to impact Gabrielle will determine if there is a landfall on the U.S. coast or now.

I get the idea there will be some sleepless nights for our friends in the weather business all the way from Charleston to Boston late this week and over the weekend.

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I had a wonderful time today down at South Highlands Baptist Church in Tuscaloosa… great hospitality and a great lunch! Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

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