East Coast Hurricane Threat This Weekend

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

No real change in our thinking concerning the threat to the coast of the Carolinas this weekend. The 12Z model runs only reinforce the idea… the models are in better agreement that the disturbance now northeast of the Bahamas being forced to the west/northwest later this week, developing into a tropical cyclone along the way. Most of the dynamic models bring the system (it will be called Gabrielle) into the North Carolina coast over the weekend. Of course, we need to stress we are still early in the game and anything goes, but the confidence is rather high since model output is in good agreement, and this kind of situation matches climatological analogs.

The highest threat of landfall will be along the upper South Carolina coast, northward through the entire length of the North Carolina coast and the Outer Banks. The GFDL ramps up the wind speed at 35 meters to 104 knots at the time of landfall; Gabrielle will be crossing the warm Gulf Stream, and this kind of intensification sure seems likely. It could be a formidable hurricane as it approaches the coast.

The system will then move parallel to the coast before turning back out to sea early next week. This is going to make for some sleepless nights for our pals along the Carolina coast in the days ahead.

THE ALABAMA STORY: The 12Z GFS still looks bone dry for Alabama through Monday. But, we have a few widely scattered showers and storms on radar this afternoon, and I think the same thing happens on a daily basis through the weekend. The drier scenario also makes sense with a hurricane on the Carolina coast; we will be in the subsiding air on the periphery of the storm, and that sinking motion will really squash any showers that try to form. Looks like highs will be in the 89 to 93 degree range through the weekend.

For football games this week (both high school and college), we sure can’t rule out a shower or two at some stadiums, but the weather this Friday night should not be nearly as wet as last Friday.

LONG RANGE: A cold front slips in here around Monday night or Tuesday of next week; some very chilly air will move down into the northern plains behind this front, but I am not convinced any of that will reach Alabama. We might see a little shot of cooler and drier air by the middle of next week, but the front could very well stall out somewhere around I-20.

And, the upper trough axis around September 20 has been shifted westward, and the chilly air shifted westward as well. But, that is all voodoo. We will get that first good taste of really cool air (morning lows in the 40s and 50s) before the month is over, most likely.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow!

Category: Uncategorized