Fine Fall Weather

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EASY FORECAST: Cool, dry air is settling into Alabama this afternoon, and all we have to do is figure out the highs and lows through early next week as the sky will stay generally cloudless. Highs will be mostly in the 70s, and lows in the 40s through Sunday, although we might be close to 80 degrees Sunday afternoon. We note the GFS is printing 42 for Birmingham early Sunday, meaning the colder spots should visit the 30s, with some potential for a touch of frost in those valleys and protected areas.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: For the high school games tonight and tomorrow night, the sky will be clear, with temperatures falling from the mid 60s at kickoff into the low 50s by the fourth quarter.

This is homecoming weekend at the University of Alabama… the Crimson Tide will host Ole Miss at 8:00 Saturday night; the sky will be clear with a kickoff temperature in the low 60s, falling to near 50 by the final whistle. Auburn hosts the Arkansas Razorbacks at Jordan-Hare Stadium Saturday afternoon at 2:30. The sky will be sunny with temperatures in the mid 70s at kickoff, falling into the 60s by the fourth quarter. And, at Legion Field, UAB will host UTEP Saturday at 3:00. The sky will be clear, with a kickoff temperature near 75 degrees, falling into the 60s by the end of the game. You can clearly see this is going to be a great weekend for football, at least in terms of weather!

NEXT WEEK: Unfortunately the chance of a significant rain event next week continues to fade. The 12Z GFS is pretty much dry, with only a slight risk of a shower Tuesday evening. A new surge of cool, dry air enters Alabama by Wednesday and Thursday.

FIRE ALERT CONTINUES: We received this note from the Alabama Forestry Commission this afternoon… The statewide Fire Alert, initially issued by the Alabama Forestry Commission on September 23, remains in effect for all 67 counties of Alabama. This alert was issued because of the extremely dry conditions which create a high risk potential for devastating wildfire. The rain received earlier this week by some counties was unfortunately not significant enough to reduce the danger. Since September 1, there have been 1,081 wildfires occurring across the state burning approximately 9,432 acres of land. During that same time period, firefighters have saved 626 occupied dwellings.

While under this Fire Alert, outdoor burning is restricted and the issuance of burn permits is limited, based on experience and resources necessary to manage the fire. Even though a permit is not required for burning one-quarter acre or less, the burner could be held responsible for suppression charges if a fire is allowed to escape. The Commission strongly recommends that citizens postpone all outdoor burning until adequate precipitation is received. The Fire Alert will remain in effect until rescinded by the State Forester, when conditions will have changed sufficiently to reduce the frequency and severity of wildfires.

PAULA: Strong winds aloft are shearing this system apart near the western tip of Cuba. Paula is a weakening tropical storm, and the circulation center will drift east over Cuba in coming days and dissipate. The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet, although we note the GFS shows another tropical system (Richard?) near Key West in about a week or so. If that does develop, like other systems this year it will head east toward the open Atlantic.

VOODOO LAND: The NAO/AO still looks strongly negative during the last week of the month, which makes us wonder if we just might see a freeze before Halloween this year. Stay tuned.

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I had a great time today visiting the campus of Georgia Tech in Atlanta, where I spoke to their local AMS chapter this morning. Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

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