Mid-Week Rain Event Ahead

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ONE MORE PLEASANT DAY: We will squeeze out one more comfortable autumn day, with a good supply of sunshine today along with a high in the upper 70s. High clouds will begin to show up this afternoon ahead of a developing upper low to the west of our state.

RAIN RETURNS, BUT HOW MUCH? The upper low will bring periods of rain to Alabama tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday, and ending Thursday morning. The chance of rain is very high, but uncertainty remains over the amount we can expect. The RPM suggests the big rains will be west of Alabama, which is certainly likely. But, we have a chance of seeing 1/2 to 1 inch, with the higher totals over the western side of the state. The NAM is printing 0.96″ for Birmingham through 84 hours.

Wednesday, in addition to being wet, will also be cool with temperatures holding in the 50s much of the day. The rain will end early Thursday as the upper low is absorbed by a long wave upper trough developing over the eastern third of the nation.

WIDESPREAD FREEZE THIS WEEKEND: Friday will be a cold, blustery day as the coldest air so far this season rolls into Alabama. Thickness values from the GFS suggest the high will be in the 47 to 50 degree range with north winds of 15 to 30 mph, making it feel colder. Then, as the winds die down late Friday night, the stage is set for the first widespread freeze of the season for Alabama Saturday morning, with lows in the 27 to 32 degree range.

DRY BUT CHILLY WEEKEND: We expect sun in full supply Saturday and Sunday, but temperatures will be well below average. After the freeze Saturday morning, the high Saturday afternoon will be in the mid to upper 50s. Then, another freeze is likely early Sunday, followed by a sunny sky and a high in the low 60s Sunday afternoon.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We do not see any severe weather threat on the 00Z GFS through mid-month… another very cold airmass drops into Alabama and the Deep South in the November 14-16 time frame.

TROPICS: Tropical Storm Tomas so far has not lived up to it’s expectations… it did not show any rapid strengthening over the weekend, and remains under hurricane strength this morning. It still has a chance of becoming a minimal hurricane later this week as it turns north, toward Haiti, by Friday and the weekend. This one won’t get close to the U.S. mainland, and will remain east of longitude 75W. The rest of the Atlantic is quiet.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s show at 8:30 CDT tonight…

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I will be doing a weather program today at Woodland Forrest Elementary School… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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