Severe Weather Late Tonight?

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MONDAY, MONDAY: Anybody remember this song by the Mama and the Papas?

“Monday, Monday, so good to me
Monday mornin’, it was all I hoped it would be
Oh Monday mornin’, Monday mornin’ couldn’t guarantee
That Monday evenin’ you would still be here with me

Monday, Monday, can’t trust that day
Monday, Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh Monday mornin’ you gave me no warnin’ of what was to be
Oh Monday, Monday, how could you leave and not take me”

TODAY: We begin the day with a cool, stable airmass in place with temperatures generally in the 40s. We will have to see a big modification in this air in a short amount of time to get a significant severe weather threat going, but the day ahead will be breezy and warmer with temperatures reaching the 60s this afternoon.

TO THE WEST: A dynamic weather system will continue to evolve, and bring the risk of strong to severe storms to parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi late this afternoon and tonight. There seems to be enough instability involved for a tornado threat over Mississippi, with the best chance of tornadic storms there coming in the general period from 5:00 p.m. through 12:00 midnight. SPC has a 10 percent chance of any one spot seeing a tornado over much of MIssissippi in this time frame, which is actually pretty significant. Remember, tornadoes are very small, isolated events when compared to a county or state.

THE ALABAMA STORY: More than likely, the thunderstorm action over Mississippi will roll into a QLCS late tonight as it moves into Alabama (quasi-linear convective system, or a fancy term for a squall line). This line of storms will be moving through after midnight, and the greatest potential threat will come from damaging winds, although a small tornado within the line can’t be ruled out.

It is a classic cold season system with high shear and low CAPE (instability). More than likely, we won’t see too much lightning as these showers/storms will be low topped. But, there will be enough veering of the wind with altitude for some risk of small tornadoes. It will be a night to have your NOAA Weather Radio powered up and programmed properly in case we get some warnings in the middle of the night, which is very possible.

TOMORROW: The severe weather threat will continue tomorrow morning, but should be over by midday for this part of the state as the line moves southeast. By afternoon, the threat of severe weather should be confined to the southeast counties of the state.

BOTTOM LINE: For North-Central Alabama (Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden), the main threat of severe weather will be from around 12:00 midnight tonight through 12:00 noon tomorrow. The main threat will be strong winds, although an isolated tornado can’t be ruled out. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for the graphics and details.

THE GOOD NEWS: This system will bring beneficial rain to the state, with amounts of 1-2 inches likely. Some spots will see more… the NAM is printing a whopping 2.99″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is probably more realistic with 2.05″.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Much colder air blows into the state Wednesday; we won’t get out of the 40s with a strong north wind. We drop into the upper 20s early Thursday with a clear sky and calm wind. The weather will be sunny and cool Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s.

WEEKEND PEEK: At this point the weekend looks great with sunny pleasant days and clear cool nights; highs around 60 and lows in the 37-43 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: The next interesting system comes along early next week; the GFS suggests rain late Monday into Tuesday (Dec 6-7), followed by much colder air with some risk of a snow flake or two on the back side of the departing system. On the other hand, the ECMWF paints the potential for a winter storm for parts of North Alabama and Tennessee. Since this is a little over 7 days away, we will still tag it in voodoo land and make adjustments after we get through this system approaching state now.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST… unless severe weather becomes an issue for the host!

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I will be headed over to West Alabama this morning for a weather program at Aliceville Elementary School…look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon… enjoy the day!

Tags: tornado

Category: Alabama's Weather