Warm Days, Cool Nights

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As expected, rain yesterday and last night was relatively light and spotty across Alabama, but there were some exceptions… totals included 1.02″ at Ellisville (Cherokee County), .90″ at Gordo, .78″ at Dearmanville (east of Anniston), .52″ at Cheaha State Park (from the ABC 33/40 Skycam network), and .47″ at Jemison. I think we had five drops at the ABC 33/40 studio in Riverchase.

LOOKING AHEAD: A very simple forecast through early next week… sunny warm days, clear cool nights, and low humidity levels. We should be in the mid 50s by daybreak tomorrow… and Sunday morning should be just as cool. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

NEXT WEEK: Model madness is the story for the latter half of next week; the 12Z GFS yesterday painted a very wet picture Thursday and Friday (October 4-5) with deep tropical moisture moving up in here, but the 00Z GFS is as dry as a bone. What do you do? Well, the old saying is that you don’t forecast rain in the middle of a drought, so we will trend toward the drier solution for now.

We also note the long wave trough we showed you yesterday on the 12Z GFS run around October 13 is long gone, as expected… all voodoo. I do believe the tropics will remain active for the next two weeks…

LORENZO: This moved into Mexico late last night as a category one hurricane… it will dissipate in coming days over Mexico.

KAREN: This tropical storm is hanging tough despite some serious shearing in the area… and the models are now turning the system back to the west, in the direction of the Bahamas and Florida, by the middle of next week in response to ridging building to the north of the system. By then, conditions could be setting up for strengthening. So, stay tuned…

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I will be speaking to the kids at Bluff Park Elementary School today… then I will head for the office and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

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