Severe Weather Threat Thursday

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes… You now have the option to watch the video full screen, and you can even get code to embed the video in your own web site!

Be sure and scroll down below for Tim Coleman’s excellent review of the severe weather potential for Thursday. It is great having Tim with us on the blog; he is a research meteorologist at UAH, and only strengthen the information you get here. A very period shaping up for the next 10 to 15 days… lets talk about it…

TODAY: Just a few widely scattered showers today; the best chance of significant rain today in Alabama will down south, where a deep slug of moisture is moving into the Alabama coastal region from the Gulf of Mexico. Watch the video and you will see the HPC QPF map indicates 7 inches of rain for Gulf Shores during the next five days! Good thing the National Shrimp Festival was last week…

TOMORROW: Moisture levels will deepen, with a better chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm across Alabama. To the west, SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe weather over parts of Oklahoma and Kansas as a dynamic weather system moves out of the Rockies.

THURSDAY: This is the day with the big potential for significant rain; we figure rainfall amounts of one inch are likely for all of Alabama, with isolated amounts over two inches. In addition, severe thunderstorms are possible. SPC has all of Alabama in a slight risk of severe weather for Thursday, and they indicate they might upgrade the risk to moderate at some point. Again, scroll down for Tim Coleman’s discussion for the severe weather potential on Thursday. Based on the projected shear and instability values, a few isolated tornadoes will be possible.

This is a great reminder we are really close to our fall severe weather season, and it has been a long time since we have dealt with a significant severe weather outbreak around here. You might consider reviewing your family severe weather plan today or tomorrow just in case.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: The weather will be dry on these days with warm afternoons and cool nights. Very nice football weather for Friday night’s high school games, and the college games on Saturday.

NEXT WEEK: Model madness rules, but another very dynamic system will move out of the Rockies late in the weekend. It will bring the risk of severe storms to the parts of the Great Plains Sunday, and will have to be watched closely as it moves our way. There is very poor consistency now in model output; as you know for a week or so the GFS was suggesting a good round of showers and storms early in the week, followed by the coolest air so far this season and the chance of frost here by mid-week. The 00Z run from last night shows a synoptic scale flood event Monday and Tuesday for areas just west of Alabama, following by a weakening band of showers and storms moving in here Tuesday night and Wednesday, and no really cold air.

With such a dynamic pattern setting up, long time readers know my policy. Lets take them one at a time, much like a football coach. We need to get Thursday’s system through here, then we can focus on what happens next week.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. David Black scored a great interview with Dr. William Gray of Colorado, one of the great minds in the science of meteorology/climatology. Dr. Gray shares his thoughts on Al Gore and the 2007 hurricane season… a very interesting show.

WEATHER PARTY: Get all the latest weather news over on our sister site, WeatherParty.com. Be sure and register while you are there; you can submit stories and vote on them to determine what is published on the front page. This is a great way to find the latest weather-related news stories.

I am off to Fayette this morning to speak with a big group of kids… I will be back in the office by early afternoon, and the afternoon Weather Xtreme video should be posted by 3:30. Enjoy the day!

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