Late Night Comments
A couple of quick comments for all the commenters…and we appreciate all of you.
Be careful when you say this is no longer a major winter storm. That could not be further from the truth. Our biggest fear in winter weather is long duration freezing rain and the chance of that happening has actually increased. It is dangerous to say that it is not “going to be as bad as expected, etc.” when it may actually be much worse. Snow fans could end up disappointed. Or the thermal profiles may stay colder and the event could be mainly snow over a wider area. We just don’t know yet. It will become clearer later today.
Tim and I conferred a little more than an hour ago on the evening model run data and talked through each piece. We based the latest information post on the very latest data, which has become a trend through the day. The low looks stronger and the surface airmass looks colder. So if that’s true, what has changed? The warming at about 5000 feet is what is changing things. A strong flow at that level will be blowing at about 50 knots tomorrow night, pumping up warm, moist air out of the Gulf of Mexico. That will create a layer where the snow falling from above will completely melt. It then depends on how deep the surface layer is above you with freezing temperatures to determine whether you get sleet or freezing rain. That is the gamechanger.
Someone said we shouldn’t post accumulation forecasts until about 24 hours out. Would love for that to be the case, but people demand to know what we are thinking. And we always make sure to say, this forecast could change and will change, especially when we are 60 or 48 or as in now, even 24 hours out.
Let me assure you that none of this is being promoted for ratings. Our job is to prepare you for whatever might come. Give you the possibilities and hone in on an accurate forecast as far out as possible. That is why we could not overlook the model data late tonight without bringing the potential for a more serious icing event to the forefront for the I-20 corridor.
Good night everyone. Professor Peters will be along with the morning video around 6 a.m. It will be an interesting day today.
Category: Alabama's Weather, Winter Weather