4 p.m. Look at Noel

…NOEL STRONGER…

4 PM CDT FAST FACTS
LATITUDE 16.8 N…LONGITUDE 71.9 W OR 125 SSE PORT AU PRINCE, HAITI OR 320 SE OF GUANTANAMO BAY, CUBA
MOVEMENT…NNW 5 MPH
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…996 MB

The center has reformed near the deep convection closer to the coast of Hispaniola. It looks less organized than earlier.

WARNINGS…
Tropical storm warnings for Haiti, SW Dominican Republic…SE Cuba (including Hurricane Watch)
Tropical storm watch for Jamaica

FLOODING RAINS
8-12 inches with isolated amounts up to 20 inches expected across aprts of Cuba, Jamaica and Hispaniola.

TRACK FORECAST
This afternoon’s prediction is brought to you by…compromise. The slow northwest or north northwest track should continue for the next day or so. Then some of the models turn it west under Cuba, while others, like the GFDL turn it more northward. The official forecast splits the difference.

INTENSITY FORECAST
A lot depends on the interaction with land. More time over water means more strengthening and the possibility of it becoming a hurricane.

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