Cold Front Arrives Tonight
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THIS AFTERNOON: Montgomery has hit the big 80 degree mark this afternoon… most other places are in the mid 70s. Once again today temperatures are well above guidance levels generated by the model MOS products. The sky is generally cloudy, but there have been some decent intervals of sunshine. The thicker cloud cover is north of I-20. We also note that winds are gusting to 25-30 mph in spots, and the NWS has issued a wind advisory.
A sharp cold front is approaching… over Arkansas at 2:00 temperatures ranged from 34 at Siloam Springs behind the front, to 76 at Texarkana, ahead of the front.
TONIGHT: That front will pass through Alabama tonight, with only a weakening band of showers. The best chance of getting measurable rain will be over the Tennessee Valley; many places down around the I-20 corridor won’t get enough rain to wet the pavement. Certainly not the beneficial rain we need (rain deficits are in the 2-5 inch range statewide for 2011 so far).
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: The high tomorrow will drop into the low 60s, about 10-12 degrees cooler than the warmth we have enjoyed today. And, close to average values for late February in Alabama. We head down into the mid to upper 30s by daybreak Wednesday… the colder valleys across North Alabama might flirt with the freezing mark briefly. Then, we warm up nicely Wednesday with a good supply of sunshine and a high in the upper 60s.
THURSDAY/FRIDAY: As noted this morning, SPC has a large severe weather risk area defined for Thursday evening from Dallas/Fort Worth and Oklahoma City to Nashville and Louisville. The northwest corner of Alabama is clipped by this risk, but we don’t expect any severe weather issues in our state due to the lack of instability and dynamic support for the approaching surface front. We do expect a band of showers, and possibly a thunderstorm Thursday night into early Friday morning, but once again rain amounts most likely will be on the light side. Sunshine returns by Friday afternoon.
OUR WEEKEND: Saturday looks like a beautiful day, with a good supply of sunshine and a high around 70. But, the 12Z runs of the GFS and the ECMWF are now showing a surface front moving in here Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, and based on the good model agreement we will go ahead and insert a chance of rain Sunday. It won’t rain all day, but a shower will be possible at just about any time.
NEXT WEEK: The front that moves through Sunday will back up and move northward as a warm front Monday. So, Monday will be breezy with a chance of showers… then a robust short wave will bring the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night. It remains to be seen if instability values can rise enough for a significant outbreak, but we will need to keep an eye on it in coming days. The good news is that 1/2 to 1 inch of rain looks likely in the Sunday-Monday night time frame.
The 12Z runs of the GFS and ECMWF suggest the best chance of strong storms will come Monday night, with cooler and drier air moving into the state on Tuesday. Still looks like a pretty decent chance we will see a widespread freeze by Wednesday morning of next week. Remember, the average date of the last freeze in Alabama is March 23, so we still have plenty more cold snaps to go. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. The upcoming guest list on WeatherBrains includes some top notch talent. How about Carolynglenn Brewer, author of “Caught in the Path, A Tornado’s Fury, A Community’s Rebirth” about the May 20, 1957 Ruskin Heights tornado in Kansas City. Or Jeff Rosenfeld, the editor of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and the awesome book “Eye of the Storm: Inside the World’s Deadliest Hurricanes, Tornadoes, and Blizzards.” We will record this week’s episode at 8:30 p.m. CST tonight… you can listen/watch on uStream here.
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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….
Category: Alabama's Weather
About the Author (Author Profile)
James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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