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Mild with Storms Ahead

| February 27, 2011 @ 7:48 am | 10 Replies

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What a wonderful spring-like day we had yesterday with highs climbing into the lower 70s under full sunshine! But this morning we have some clouds which will mix out later this morning giving way to some sunshine for the afternoon as highs climb again into the 70s. But a vigorous upper trough ejecting out of the Southwest US will bring severe weather to us on Monday and to the Central Plains states today.

The upper trough will reach the Mississippi River around noon Monday which will bring a squall line into the northwest corner of Alabama around sunrise. The squall line may degrade and re-generate moving through the Birmingham area between about noon and 3 pm or so. Severe weather parameters are in place, but none of them would be classified as extreme. Helicity is 150 to 300 while CAPE values are around 1000 with surface dew points approaching 70 degrees. So it appears likely the storms will approach severe limits – winds over 58 mph and hail 1 inch in diameter or larger – with wind being the main threat. Since helicity values are respectable, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. I expect to see tornado watches for parts of Alabama beginning in the early morning hours and continuing for much of the day. Rainfall is not expected to be very high because of the rapid translation of the storms – around a half inch for most locations with perhaps isolated locales up to one inch.

The system sweeps out of Alabama Monday evening paving the way for a beautiful start to March. No really cold air behind this system, so while we dip back on highs somewhat we’ll still be in the 60s with much drier air. Good weather continues Wednesday and Thursday thanks to a weak upper ridge. Friday the ridge begins to break down in response to a developing trough off to the northwest of us. This trough will intensify as it moves across the central US bringing another round of thunderstorms to Central Alabama on Saturday.

And this system should remind us that winter is not completely over with some pretty chilly air invading the state a week from today, March 6th. This will not be record breaking cold, but certainly we’ll be seeing highs drop back into the 50s.

Peeking out into the next week, there is no lack of action for weather enthusiasts with another round of storms around the 9th and again around the 13th. But do remember that March, April, and May constitute the primary severe weather season in the Southeast US, so this is fairly typical for this time of year.

Don’t forget to listen to our weekly netcast anytime on the web or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left.

And you can follow news and weather updates from ABC 33/40 on Twitter here. Stay in the know by following the whole gang – here’s the list…

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Enjoy the day. James Spann will be back with the next edition of the Weather Xtreme Video first thing Monday morning. Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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