Wet Start To The Weekend

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THIS AFTERNOON: Rain is relatively widespread across Mississippi right now, with some parts of West Alabama getting wet. Also, the CAD (cold air damming) effect is very pronounced with communities near the Georgia border barely out of the 40s, while parts of West Alabama are just about 20 degrees warmer, in the upper 60s. Atlanta is at only 46 degrees at 2:00 with a very chilly east wind.

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for a detailed look at the rain and how it should unfold, but the rain will become more widespread across the state tonight, and tomorrow will feature rain much of the day with a few thunderstorms by afternoon. Severe weather parameters remain very weak with hardly any surface based instability, but we always have to watch any system like this in March. SPC maintains their standard risk of severe weather (slight risk) near the Alabama Gulf coast, but there is no formal risk for the rest of the state.

The 12Z NAM has become more aggressive with rain… and is printing a whopping 3.44″ for Birmingham. The GFS is drier at 1.51… the truth is probably somewhere in between those figures. We believe most places will wind up with around two inches of rain between now and late tomorrow night, with potential for more in spots.

There will be periods tomorrow when there is no rain, but it could rain at any time, and the rain will fall over a pretty decent part of the day. The heavier rain and storms should come from around 3:00 until 9:00 p.m.

SUNDAY/MONDAY: Sunday will feature gradual clearing with a high only in the mid 50s; we note the NAM is printing a high of only 51 for Birmingham Sunday. We will be very close to freezing early Monday; actual lows will probably range from 25 for the coldest valleys to 35 on the ridge tops. Frost should be widespread. Then, a warming trend begins Monday afternoon with a high in the low to mid 60s.

STRONG STORMS NEXT WEEK? A cold front will bring a band of showers and storms to Alabama Wednesday night… and with good upper support and some decent instability, we might be looking at some risk of severe weather. For now the greatest threat seems to be from strong straight line winds with a nighttime QLCS (quasi-linear convective system). We will keep an eye on parameters as that event gets closer. Drier and cooler air follows that front for Thursday and Friday; we might be close to freezing by daybreak Friday.

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I enjoyed visiting with the kids in the pre-school at Trinity United Methodist Church this morning… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. My next Weather Xtreme video will be posted bright and early Monday morning… Brian Peters, the internationally beloved meteorologist, will have the video updates tomorrow and Sunday. Enjoy the weekend!

Tags: soaking

Category: Alabama's Weather