Big Wet-Down Beginning

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RIGHT NOW: Lamar County in West Alabama remains under a flash flood warning until 7:00 p.m… widespread rain is now falling along and north of I-59, with a few elevated thunderstorms in the mix. The rain will continue in this part of Alabama throughout the night and into tomorrow night. South of I-59… the most widespread rain will probably hold off until the day tomorrow.

TO THE WEST: A tornado watch is in effect for much of Louisiana and South Mississippi… and the first tornado warning of the event has been issued by the NWS New Orleans for an area between Hammond, LA and McComb, MS. SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe weather in that general area for the rest of the afternoon and tonight.

TONIGHT/TOMORROW: It still looks like heavy rain will be main threat for North Alabama with this event; a flash flood watch is in effect for just about all of Alabama (except the southeast corner) through tomorrow. The NAM is now printing 2.45″ of rain with this system for Birmingham… the GFS is at 1.91″. The RPM runs are mostly in the 2 inch range. I think we can forecast two inches of rain for much of North and Central Alabama, with isolated amounts over three inches. Very much like the rain event we experienced this past Saturday. With the ground saturated, expect a few flash flood warnings during the next 24 hours.

SEVERE WEATHER? The SPC severe weather risk for tomorrow is generally along and south of U.S. 80… and that looks good to us. It looks like there will be little if any surface based instability over the northern half of the state, so the primary severe weather risk will remain down south. Forecast soundings suggest there could be sufficient shear for a few isolated tornadoes tomorrow, so everybody over South Alabama will need to be in a position to hear the latest watches and warnings tonight and tomorrow as they are needed.

THURSDAY: This day sure looks cloudy, cold, and raw, much like this past Sunday. We probably won’t get out of the 40s with a chilly northwest wind.

FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND: After a low very close to freezing at daybreak Friday, we begin a nice warm-up during the afternoon Friday with a high in the low 60s. The weekend still looks excellent, with ample sunshine and afternoon highs in the 67 to 71 degree range.

NEXT WEEK: Watch the Weather Xtreme video for a day by day breakdown… I know many people are on spring break and have questions about weather in various parts of the nation. Here in Alabama… the 12Z GFS keeps the idea of a chance of showers Monday afternoon and Monday night, and another chance of showers and storms at the end of the week, perhaps late Thursday into Friday. Forecast confidence is rather low due to model inconsistency.

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I had a great time today visiting with the 2nd graders at Pinson Elementary… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 and 6:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow… we will provide frequent updates on the Alabama weather situation throughout the night…

Tags: flash flood

Category: Alabama's Weather