Turning Cooler Thursday
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THIS AFTERNOON: Make it five in a row. Birmingham hit 80 degrees at 2:00 this afternoon… so we have seen a high of 80 or higher for five consecutive days. Not a bad way to start spring after the long, cold, icy winter we experienced.
TOMORROW/THURSDAY: A weak front will pass through tomorrow night, and the prospect of really significant rain still looks small. The NAM is printing 0.05″ of rain for Birmingham, while the GFS is at 0.12″. Seems like the main window for showers will come from about 4:00 until 11:00 p.m. Models have clearly trended cooler for Thursday, and based on actual observations behind the front I think they are on the right track. We will lower high temperature forecasts on Thursday down into the mid 60s as the sky becomes mostly sunny.
FRIDAY: Friday morning will also be colder. The NAM and the GFS show Birmingham in the upper 30s, meaning there is potential for some light frost across the colder valleys of North and Central Alabama at daybreak Friday. Then, we warm into the low 70s Friday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine.
OUR WEEKEND: While a shower is possible in a few spots Saturday afternoon, the better chance of showers will come Saturday night into Sunday. The rain probably won’t be too heavy, with amounts of 1/2 inch or less. The 12Z GFS shows the front stalling out Sunday near U.S. 72, or not too far from the Tennessee Valley, so it looks like we will need to hang on to a chance of showers statewide through the day Sunday.
NEXT WEEK: A more significant trough will impact Alabama early next week, with rain and thunderstorms likely Monday. This should be the wettest day, with rain amounts of 1 inch likely for most of the state. We might see a strong storm or two, but at this point instability values look a little limited for a big severe weather threat. Then cooler and drier air returns by Tuesday afternoon.
LONG RANGE: We still see the negative NAO spike around the end of March and the first of April (about 9-11 days from now), and that still opens the door for one last late season freeze threat. Operational runs of the GFS look different every 6 hours, and we really are about 5 days away from being specific about the threat. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.
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I had a great time today visiting the kids at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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