Cold Front Arrives Tomorrow Night

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STILL WARM: We note that the Birmingham in Birmingham has been at or above 80 degrees for four consecutive days… and we will probably make it five in a row today with a high in the low 80s for most places with a good supply of sunshine as the warm Gulf upper ridge holds. To the northwest, however, an upper trough will bring the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms to parts of the Midwest U.S. this afternoon and tonight.

TOMORROW: The wave to the north will weaken, and the trailing front is due in here tomorrow night. We will maintain the risk of showers, and somebody somewhere might even hear some thunder, but we still expect rain amounts to be very light and spotty with the lack of dynamic support. The NAM is printing a whopping 0.01″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is is a little wetter at 0.07″. Needless to say, don’t expect much rain, and for folks south of I-20 rain drops will be hard to find.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: These two days look nice with a good deal of sunshine and highs in the mid 70s. Friday morning will be cool with low 40s likely; some of the colder spots could see upper 30s.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK: Another relatively weak system for late March will bring a chance of showers to Alabama at times this weekend. Watch the Weather Xtreme video, and you will see the 00Z GFS suggests the best chance of showers will come late Saturday afternoon, Saturday night, and perhaps into Sunday morning for the northern half of the state. By Sunday afternoon the best chance of rain will shift down into South Alabama as the cold front stalls around U.S. 80 as it becomes parallel to the upper air flow. We might even see a little sun Sunday afternoon over North Alabama. The high Saturday will be close to 80, but we turn a little cooler Sunday with a high in the low 70s.

NEXT WEEK: The front will reverse course, and move northward as a warm front Sunday night, and showers are possible statewide by then. Monday a short wave spins up a surface low on the front over Mississippi, and that should bring a pretty good round of rain and possible thunderstorms on Monday statewide. For now the severe weather threat looks low, but a strong storm is certainly possible Monday. Cooler and drier air returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.

LATE SEASON FREEZE? We still can’t be specific, of course, but growers need to be aware of the possibility of a deep upper trough over the eastern U.S. around the beginning of April (late next week, or the following weekend) with potential for a late season freeze for parts of the southern U.S. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.

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I have a weather program this morning for the kids at Gardendale’s First Baptist Church early learning center… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: cold front

Category: Alabama's Weather