Stormy Times Ahead

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Looks like Central and North Alabama are in for some stormy weather. In fact, there have already been some severe thunderstorm warnings issued across the Tennessee River Valley with the weather that is currently ongoing. But it does appear likely that we will be seeing more stormy weather this afternoon and into the first half of Sunday.

The weather map shows a warm front in the vicinity of Tuscaloosa stretching down to near Montgomery and then southeast into Florida. The warm front will be moving steadily northward with much of the rain and storms along and north of the frontal boundary this morning and into the early afternoon. This afternoon, a strong upper jet will be approaching the area putting much of the northern half of Alabama in a favorable position for severe weather along with the area from Central Arkansas across Mississippi and into Alabama.

CAPE values climb to above 2000 j/kg during the evening with some even higher values off to the west. So I expect to see SPC issuing tornado watches later today and into tonight. All forms of severe weather are possible including tornadoes. Highest helicity values are actually to the north of the warm front, but even just south of the front values soar above 300, so all in all conditions remain strongly favorable for severe storms. The surface low currently in South Central Oklahoma is expected to track along the frontal boundary and should be situated near Tupelo around midnight. Storm are likely to remain active into the early morning hours before the intensity falls off as the low moves into North Georgia. Lingering clouds and a few showers are possible into Sunday but overall conditions should be improving through the afternoon.

That means Sunday will be a bit cooler with temperatures mainly in the 60s for lows and highs. Rainfall with this system could be close to 3 inches along the Alabama-Tennessee line with amounts of 1 to 2 inches across much of Central Alabama. Because of the recent dry weather I don’t believe flash flooding will be a major issue, however, some of the stronger storms could produce rain heavy enough to cause localized issues.

Monday stays dry and relatively cool with lows dipping back into the lower 40s while afternoon highs climb to near 68 or so – my kind of temperature day! But the next system is taking shape off to the west and northwest of us, so no real rest for weather folks. The next upper trough begins to dig in on Tuesday across the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles. I think we will be dry during the day Tuesday with bulk of the rain approaching Tuesday evening and into Wednesday morning. This sets the stage for another round of wet weather primarily on Wednesday. There is some uncertainty right now, but severe weather may be an issue again. Conditions do not appear nearly as favorable as we see for today and tonight, so we’ll be watching it carefully.

That upper trough digs and amplifies setting us up for another round of colder weather at the end of the week as the upper flow comes around to a strong northwesterly one. Because the trough is digging on Thursday, we remain in position for some showers but nothing likely to be severe. The trough noses by early Friday so look for lows to drop back into the 40s. And right now the weekend looks good.

The long range GFS remains active with a continual parade of upper troughs. The next one appears likely to bring rainy weather and storms to us on the 5th and 6th of April. This one also looks potentially severe. The next one after that comes around the 9th and 10th but does not seem to be as strong with the main action a bit further north. The main point, however, is the active nature of the pattern.

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Stay tuned to the Blog for more information as the day and weather roll along. All the folks posting here are gearing up to bring you the latest information. In fact, James is probably not going to get much time off today! Stay safe and be sure to review safety rules. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather