Three Dot Update

JB calls them three dot updates. It is a list of notes, each starting with an ellipsis, or three dots…

…Rain is beginning to taper off over the Tennessee Valley. A flash flood warning continues for Franklin and Lawrence Counties. Doppler radar estimates indicate that 2 to 3 inches of rain fell across a widespread part of these counties this morning with some isolated 4 inch amounts possible.

…This will nibble at the drought area over Northwest Alabama. 1.19 inches has fallen so far this morning at the Northwest Alabama Regional Airport in Muscle Shoals. Most of Lauderdale, Colbert and Lawrence Counties got 1-2 inches of rain this morning. They needed it a lot.

…Huntsville and Decatur both have picked up a little more than an inch of rain this morning.

…Parts of East Central Alabama, including Tallapoosa, eastern Elmore, Chambers, Lee and Macon Counties are in Extreme Drought now. Two to three inches of rain should fall over these counties in the next 7 days. That will help.

…0.51 inches is the year to date rainfall deficit at the Birmingham Airport. We should erase that by this time tomorrow. The GFS spits out only 0.63 inches today and today, however, so it may be close.

…Just before 10 a.m., the heaviest rain extends from eastern Lawrence through Morgan, Marshall, southern DeKalb and Cherokee Counties. The heaviest storm has now passed into Georgia, east of Fort Payne. There has definitely been a decrease in intensity over the past hour.

…There is still some lightning…especially south of Decatur, south of Moulton and west of Red Bay.

…Tops have come down, peaking now at around 32,000 feet over western Morgan County…they were as high as 40,000 feet earlier this morning.

…The SPC kept us in a slight risk category for today. 65 of the 67 counties are in the risk outlook. A large part of Central Alabama is in the 10% probability area for tornadoes, the northern two thirds of the state is in the 30% severe hail probability and much of Central Alabama is in the 30% severe wind category.

…Those probabilities refer to the chance that you will see that severe phenomenon within 25 miles of your location. Those 30% probabilities and the 10% tornado probability are on the high end of the slight category.

…Brian Peters reports that the NWS has activated ALERT, the ham radio group which works from the NWS office, effective at 2 pm today.

…Some breaks are appearing in the clouds now over Central Mississippi, south of Greenville and Greenwood, south of Jackson and Maridian and in Alabama south of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham and from Greenville up to Montgomery. You immediately see cumulus clouds mushrooming from Vicksburg to north of Jackson.

…A Twitter report says the sun is shining brightly in Shelby County…the knowledgeable Twitterer said “uh ohhhhh.”

…CAPEs above 500 j/kg2 cover the southwestern third of Alabama and the southern half of Mississippi. Those areas that have dewpoints in the middle 60s and some sunshine will see those values rising quickly over the next couple of hours and storms will form and intensify there.

…Helicity values are high over North and Central Alabama. If we get decent instability and those strong, deep updrafts and thunderstorm cores, we will have the potential for tornadoes.

…The NWS Birmingham is launching a special balloon at 17z. That’s weather speak for 12 noon. This balloon will give us details on instability and winds up through the atmosphere.

Everyone should keep a close eye on the developing weather situation through the afternoon and overnight. We will have frequent updates throughout the day right here on AlabamaWx.com.

Category: Alabama's Weather, Severe Weather