More Rain Ahead

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THIS AFTERNOON: While clouds are hanging tough over much of Alabama, we are starting to see some decent breaks in the overcast. Temperatures are well below forecast levels… mostly in the 50s. Birmingham is at 56 degrees at 3:00… the GFS MOS had us around 68 at this hour. The GFS has been way too warm in recent days, and it looks way too warm for much of the week ahead. The NAM has been performing much better, and we will use that guidance for the next 84 hours.

MORE RAIN AND STORMS: We will bring in a chance of showers tomorrow afternoon ahead of the next storm system getting it’s act together west of Alabama. The NAM is forecasting 59 degrees for a high tomorrow, and that is probably close to the truth with clouds in place all day. Rain and storms become widespread late tomorrow night and Wednesday, with rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches likely statewide. While we might see a few storms with hail, like this past weekend, it doesn’t look like the storms will be really surface based with no SBCAPE up this way; all of the instability will be over the southern third of Alabama, and even there SPC does not have a formal risk in place.

COLDER BY THURSDAY: The rain will begin to taper off Wednesday afternoon as a surface low moves east of Alabama, but a deep upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. during the latter half of the week, which should mean cloudy, chilly, and damp weather on Thursday and Friday. GFS MOS products look way too warm… parts of North Alabama won’t get out of the 40s Friday afternoon, and a few periods of light rain are likely both Thursday and Friday. There even might be a few pockets of convection Friday due to the very cold air aloft, and a little hail where that happens.

OUR WEEKEND: If the sky clears Friday night as expected, we could very well reach the 30s Saturday morning with some frost possible. Then, a beautiful weekend is ahead. Lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday… the high Saturday will be close to 70, followed by mid to upper 70s Sunday. No rain-outs this weekend.

NEXT WEEK: See the Weather Xtreme video… the 12Z GFS brings in a cold front Monday of next week with a risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, and another deep upper trough brings in some cold air by mid-week, which could bring up a chance of frost or even a freeze.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We record this week’s episode at 8:30 CDT tonight… tonight, the WeatherBrains crew will welcome Carol Ann Garrat, a pilot and adventurer who holds several world records. She will talk about how the weather affects pilots who are making around the world flights. I am sure she has some stories to tell. I bet JB tells his story about briefing an international flight crew about the Birmingham Airport during his days at the U.S. Weather Bureau. You can listen/watch via uStream here.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

I had a great time today visiting with Alabama Power employees in Shelby County directly under the NEXRAD radar operated by the National Weather Service… and also with the first graders at Center Point Elementary this afternoon. Be looking for those kids on ABC 33/40 News at 5:00 this afternoon on the Pepsi KIDCAM! The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted here by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…

Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather