Rain Arrives Tonight

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THIS AFTERNOON: Again, the GFS forecast temperatures are horrible today… the model had forecast highs in the mid to upper 60s; most places are in the low to mid 50s at mid-afternoon, much closer to NAM values. The sky is cloudy, and the radars are generally quiet.

TO THE SOUTHWEST: SPC just issued a tornado watch for much of South Louisiana and South Mississippi until 10:00 p.m., where thunderstorms are expected to develop within the next few hours. But, needless to say, with cool and stable air in place up here we aren’t too worried about severe weather issues for the northern half of Alabama tonight.

ANOTHER GOOD WET DOWN: Rain will become widespread late tonight, especially after midnight, with some elevated thunderstorms involved as a surface low moves through the Central Gulf Coast region. The rain will begin to taper off by early afternoon as the low pulls away to the east. The NAM is printing 1.03″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is drier at 0.44″. There is a very real prospect that a convective mass on the Gulf Coast will cut off the deeper inflow to our part of the state, reducing the potential rain here. We will forecast 1/2 to 1 inch of rain now for the northern half of the state.

THURSDAY/FRIDAY: A deep upper trough will cover the eastern U.S., making for cloudy and cool weather for Alabama these two days with a chance of a little light rain or drizzle at times. GFS temperatures remain way too warm; we will most likely see a high in the 50s both days, although parts of the Tennessee Valley probably won’t get out of the 40s Thursday as the 540 decameter 1000-500 mb thickness line drops down toward Huntsville.

WARMER WEEKEND: We are still looking at a noticeable warm-up Saturday and Sunday with a good supply of sunshine both days. The high Saturday will be close to 70, followed by mid to upper 70s Sunday.

NEXT WEEK: Model madness rules. The new 12Z runs of the ECMWF and GFS now show no cold upper trough at mid-week… we will have a cold front through here on Tuesday with a chance of showers and storms, but no really cold air to follow on Wednesday. Very low confidence in the forecast for next week… see the Weather Xtreme video for details on long range thoughts.

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Tags: wet

Category: Alabama's Weather