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Another Round Of Rain/Storms Ahead

| March 29, 2011 @ 5:59 am | 1 Reply

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ANOTHER WET-DOWN: Clouds are hanging tough across Alabama this morning with temperatures mostly in the 40s; we note that Haleyville is at a chilly 39 degrees at 5:00 a.m., where the sky did manage to clear last night. We will mention the risk of a few showers this afternoon, but the big rain comes late tonight and tomorrow when some thunderstorms could be involved.

HOW MUCH RAIN? The NAM is printing 1.36″ for Birmingham, while the GFS is drier at 0.72″. We will forecast 1 to 2 inches of rain for the northern half of Alabama, but we are aware that a MCS along the Gulf Coast could cut off the good inflow of moisture up this way, reducing the amount of rain and making the GFS total more realistic.

SEVERE WEATHER? Very unlikely for North-Central Alabama with no surface based instability. SPC has the standard slight risk of severe weather in place this afternoon into late tonight from Southeast Texas to near Mobile, but clearly the stronger storms will stay down south. However, with colder air aloft, we will have to watch for elevated storms with hail. Also, we will need to watch for a warm front that could be just to the south.

REST OF THE WEEK: The heaviest rain moves east of Alabama by tomorrow afternoon, but a deep upper trough forms over the eastern U.S. that will keep us very cool, cloudy, and damp through Friday. Periods of rain are likely Thursday into Friday, and temperatures will be well below average. It is unlikely we won’t make it out of the 50s both days, and parts of North Alabama might not make it out of the 40s. The GFS thermal fields were horrible this past weekend, and I think MOS products are way too warm on these days.

WARMER WEEKEND: The good news is that the weekend looks wonderful. Lots of sunshine Saturday and Sunday with a nice warming trend; we see a high approaching 70 Saturday, and we could be close to 80 Sunday afternoon with a good supply of sunshine both days.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: The next round of showers and storms arrives by Monday afternoon or Monday night, followed by colder weather by the middle of next week. We will watch to see if this one will get us down to near the freezing mark; see the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode we recorded last night.

FOLLOW ALONG: Here are our weather team Twitter accounts….

James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
J. B. Elliott Bill Murray Brian Peters
Dr. Tim Coleman WeatherBrains Podcast E-Warn (AL wx watches/warnings)

Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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