TO THE NORTH: A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for much of Middle Tennessee, and strong storms will likely drop into North Alabama tonight ahead of a surface front. SPC has the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama in a “slight risk” (level 2/5) tonight, with a “moderate risk” down to Tuscaloosa, Sylacauga, and Roanoke. The main threat will come from strong straight line winds.
CHANGES AHEAD: Generally dry weather is the story for Alabama this afternoon, with temperatures mostly in the 86-90 degree range. But, to the north, we are seeing numerous showers and thunderstorms over Tennessee in association with a surface front dropping southward into the Deep South. Those showers and storms will move into North Alabama in coming hours, and will continue to move southward tonight.
FLOODING ISSUES FOR EAST ALABAMA: Very high precipitable water values, combined with a weak disturbance aloft led to slow moving thunderstorms developing over parts of Alabama this morning. Significant flooding was reported in Calhoun County.
RADAR CHECK: Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase over the western half of Alabama this afternoon… but they are under severe limits. So far the eastern side of the state has remained dry. We will maintain the chance of showers and storms this evening; they should diminish later tonight.
A FEW STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY: We have a few light rain showers over Northwest Alabama early this morning, but most of the state is dry with temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. To the west, a large mass of rain covers the broad zone from Memphis down into North Louisiana. Much of this is expected to dissipate before reaching Alabama, but additional showers and storms are expected to form this afternoon and early tonight. Where storms do form, they could be strong, and SPC has much of the state in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5).
WATCHING THE RADAR: A line of severe storms is along I-55 in Mississippi as I write this update; a few tornado warnings are in effect for line segments where storms are in rotation. But, here in Alabama, all is calm… it is a warm, windy afternoon with a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures in the 76-80 degree range.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT: Another dynamic storm system will impact Alabama over the next 24 hours, but the day today should be fairly quiet. The sky will be mostly cloudy, and temperatures will rise to near 80 degrees this afternoon. As the pressure gradient tightens, south winds will ramp up this afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph with higher gusts. Any showers today should be very widely spaced.
A vigorous weather system will bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms across Alabama after midnight into tomorrow morning. While instability values are relatively modest, the dynamics involved will overcome that, most likely, with jet stream level winds of 120 knots, and 90 knots at 500 mb (18.000 feet off the ground). Strong to extreme low level shear will be in place.
EYES ON THE RADAR: No severe storms are in progress across Alabama at mid-afternoon; there is a large mass of rain over the Tennessee Valley, and the rest of the state is mostly dry with only isolated showers. There are some big breaks in the cloud cover over West and Southwest Alabama, where temperatures are approaching 80 degrees… this is one area to watch this evening for new thunderstorm development since the air there is becoming quite unstable.
ACTIVE DAY: A severe storm produced possible tornado damage early this morning over northern Blount, and parts of Marshall counties… that storm is out of the state and there is no severe weather in progress as of 8:00 a.m. Later today, more strong to severe storms are possible. SPC has defined slight risks (level 2/5) for parts of Northwest Alabama, and the area near the Georgia border, with a marginal risk (level 1/5) for the rest of the state.
After a round of noisy thunderstorms last night night with gusty winds, lots of lightning, and some hail, we expect a relatively quiet day today. A partly sunny sky with a high close to 80 degrees this afternoon. Any showers should be few and far between. LATE TONIGHT: A thunderstorm complex will move into Alabama […]
Here are a few notes concerning the potential for strong/severe storms across Alabama through Monday. Let’s say up front that most of the weekend will be warm and dry, but a passing shower or storm is possible at times. TODAY/TONIGHT: SPC has most of Alabama in a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms for […]
An approaching cold front will bring a band of showers and thunderstorms into Alabama tonight. SPC has introduced a “slight risk” (level 2/5) for severe storms over Northwest Alabama… for areas west of a line from Athens to Carbon Hill to Reform. There is a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) as far east as Scottsboro, Warrior, […]
EYES ON THE RADAR: Showers and thunderstorms are developing rather rapidly across Alabama this afternoon; over the next few hours they will be capable of producing large hail, and strong winds. SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storms for much of Central Alabama, with a “marginal risk” (level 1/5) for most of the rest of the state.
ACTIVE DAY AHEAD: Rain is falling over Northwest Alabama early this morning; this will move slowly eastward and dissipate in coming hours. Then, as a short wave upper trough approaches, new showers and thunderstorms will form this afternoon. SPC has defined the standard “slight risk” (level 2/5) of severe storms for much of Central Alabama, including places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Clanton, Demopolis, Greenville, and Opelika. A “marginal risk” (level 1/5) covers most of the rest of the state.
MILD, WINDY DAY: A deep surface low this morning over the Great Plains will move slowly northeast, dragging a cold front into Alabama tonight. Ahead of that front, today will be mild and windy with a high in the 70s. A strong south wind will average 15-25 mph, with occasionally higher gusts. The air will become unstable this afternoon, and strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through tonight.
