After Thanksgiving Travel

No way we can cover every destination or every route, but here are some examples that may help. First, an overview:

Snow is in the forecast for all counties in New Mexico, 5 counties in SE Arizona, most of the Texas Panhandle and the west 1/3 of Kansas. Snow was already falling this morning from the Texas Panhandle (that means Amarillo, not El Paso!). I will do a brief story about that one day. Anyway the snow extends north through the Oklahoma Panhandle into West Kansas. There is also some snow activity in the NE scattered from Western Pennsylvania into New York State.

This afternoon there was no precipitation of any kind over a very broad area including the Carolinas, Tennessee, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida and the east 80% of Texas.

Scattered thunderstorms will start in South Texas later today. Scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night will spread east to places like Shreveport, New Orleans, Jackson and Mobile. There is a general outlook for some possible severe weather Sunday over SE Louisiana, the south half of Mississippi and SW Alabama. That could spread more northward and eastward by Monday.

Be advised of a vast wet weather system is on the horizon over the weekend and through Monday all the way from New Mexico to the Atlantic coast and even north and NE to the Mid-Atlantic states and New England. At some point during this timeframe, heavy rain will affect Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Middle and Eastern Tennessee.

Okay, let’s give you some specific location reports.

ALBUQUERQUE
Already some snow flurries. They expect 1 to 3 inches of snow this afternoon, an additional 1 to 2 inches tonight and about another inch on Saturday. Strong NE winds will set in Saturday. They frequently get strong canyon winds.

LUBBOCK
That West Texas city will have intermittent snow showers through Sunday, but their official NWS forecast does not mention any significant accumulation.

DALLAS/FT. WORTH
Widespread rain starts Saturday and continues all through the weekend with highs only in the 40s.

HOUSTON
A bit of light rain this afternoon, but showers and thunderstorms will be increasing in number after midnight tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing all the way through Sunday night. Heavy rain at times. In a weather model like this, Houston often gets several inches of rain.

NEW ORLEANS
Light rain starts Saturday afternoon. Numerous showers will reach the area Saturday afternoon with numerous showers and thunderstorms continuing Saturday night, Sunday and Sunday night. The Crescent City could easily get 3 to 4 inches of rain out of this.

JACKSON
Light rain holds off until Saturday morning, but increasing in the afternoon. There is a high probability of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night, Sunday and Sunday night.

MOBILE/GULF SHORES/PENSACOLA
Rain starts Saturday afternoon and becomes widespread Saturday night and stays that way all the way through Monday morning. Rain will be heavy at times during that period and, at some point, they may experience some severe thunderstorm warnings.

TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG
Not much rain indicated all the way through the weekend and even all the way until next Thursday. They expect a 20% of rain on a few days. Highs will be consistently 80 to 85.

THIRSTY ATLANTA
Showers start Saturday. Showers will become numerous after midnight Saturday night. After that showers, numerous at times, all the way through Monday with a climax of showers and strong thunderstorms during the day Monday. Atlanta could get somewhere between 2 and 3 inches of rain out of this total system based on computer models. As of this morning, the rain deficit in Atlanta for the year stands at 18.86 inches. They have received only 26.41 inches so far this year. Compare that to Oklahoma City, which is 53 inches this year and an excess of almost 20 inches.

GATLINBURG/GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
Dry weather tonight and Saturday with tonight’s lows in the teens and 20s, depending which hill you are on. Rain will start Saturday night. After that, expect numerous showers late in the weekend all the way through Monday. In a case like this, there could always be some snow on the very highest elevations like Mt. LeConte. By the way, the low on Mt. LeConte this morning was 16 and they got 1 inch of snow in the last 24 hours. Newfound Gap also has 1 inch on the ground.

NASHVILLE
Dry through Saturday. A little rain Saturday night. Showers, numerous at times, Sunday, but most numerous Sunday night and Monday.

MEMPHIS
No rain until a slight chance Saturday afternoon. Rain will become widespread Saturday night and continue that way Sunday and Sunday night into Monday morning.

DES MOINES
Scattered snow showers after midnight, occasional snow on Saturday, then dry over the weekend. No mention of significant accumulation.

CHICAGO
No rain until a chance of some light rain on Monday.

BIRMINGHAM/TUSCALOOSA/ANNISTON
Nothing until a slight chance of light rain late Saturday. Rain will increase Saturday night with numerous showers Sunday. Thunderstorms will also become involved by Sunday night. So look for numerous showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday with rain heavy at times. Some of our computer guidance that specializes in precipitation amounts, suggests 4 inches of rain for this whole event. We may sit down around the table with a cup of coffee and talk to that model. Weather models are too dumb to know when a historic drought is under way and droughts simply hate big rain events.

AUBURN
Since there is a semi-important football game at 7:00 p.m. Saturday between Auburn and Alabama, there is a chance of rain with temperatures falling into the 40s after a high of about 55 Saturday afternoon. There is a chance that the rain may not be well underway by game time, but it most likely will be in the process of increasing. We may not be able to pinpoint that possibility until early tomorrow.

Category: Pre-November 2010 Posts