Checking the Score…the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The 2007 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has been an active one, but you may not have noticed. You probably haven’t noticed because there have only been two landfalling U.S. tropical storms (Erin and Gabrielle) and one U.S. landfalling hurricane (Humberto.) And those weren’t even headline storms. Tropical Storm Barry weakened to a depression before making landfall in Florida.

There have been fourteen named storms this season, five of which became hurricanes. Two of the hurricanes went on to become major hurricanes, Dean and Felix.

The long term climatology according to the Colorado State team is 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes. My calculations from 1950-2006 indicate the long term averages have increased to 10.7 named storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.6 major hurricanes. If you look at the era since 1995, the annual averages are 14.75 named storms, 8.2 hurricanes and 3.9 major hurricanes.

To look at overall intensity, you need to check the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index calculated by NOAA. So far for this year, it sits at 67.45. The mean annual ACE index is 86.5. 67 is considered to be on the lower side of normal, just barely above the below normal threshold. It is well below the all time record ACE value of 245 recorded in the disastrous 2005 hurricane season.

So, the overall story is that the 2007 North Atlantic Hurricane Season has been above normal in storm counts, but not in overall storm intensity. We have been lucky in the U.S. with only three minor landfalling storms.

But that’s not to say that there haven’t been some intense hurricanes, and some deadly ones across the basin. Only four years have seen two Category Five storms in the same year, and this is the first year that two Cat Five storms made landfall at that intensity in the same year.

Next weekend, I will take a look back at all of the individual storms from the 2007 season that comes to an official close on Friday. .

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