Eyes To The West

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THIS AFTERNOON: The sky is mostly sunny across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80. To the west, the Storm Prediction Center just issued the first tornado watch of the day, a PDS (particularly dangerous situation) watch for much of East Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. Convection is firing along the dryline now, and many of those will go severe with a few long track tornadoes possible. The storm chaser guys are out in full force over the eastern half of Oklahoma.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TOMORROW: Not much overall change in our thinking. Model runs are waffling a bit on timing, but I think we still need to mention the risk of a severe storm over far West Alabama late tomorrow morning, but the bulk of the storms will come from 12:00 noon until 10:00 p.m. Initially, the storms will be cellular in nature during the afternoon, and they could produce large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. Then, tomorrow night, everything evolves into a squall line and the threat will be from damaging straight line winds.

The main limiting factor continues to be surface based instability; most models are showing CAPE (convective available potential energy) values in the 400-800 j/kg range over the northern half of Alabama… you generally expect CAPEs of 1,500 j/kg or higher for a big event this time of the year. But, everything else is in place… steep lapse rates, highly diffluent upper air flow, lots of speed and directional shear, and dynamic lift from the nearly stacked low south of Kansas City. We will keep an eye on the instability values throughout the day tomorrow…. that might hold the real clue as to the severity of the event.

SPC maintains a moderate risk of severe weather for the western two-thirds of North and Central Alabama, and the eastern half of Mississippi. Their outlook suggests a 45 percent chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given point within that moderate risk. Be sure and watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics that go along with this discussion.

ATTENTION SCHOOL OFFICIALS: Most of you know I am not a big fan of schools closing early during severe weather days, but for the systems that do decide to close tomorrow, we encourage that students have an option of staying in the school building since so many kids in rural Alabama will go home to mobile homes, which are the worst place to be during a tornado outbreak. And, the older high school students who go home along often don’t pay too much attention to severe weather warnings.

ATTENTION TALLADEGA SUPERSPEEDWAY CAMPERS: Now is the time to be sure you have a way of getting tornado warnings tomorrow, and now is the time to figure out what you are going to do if a warning is indeed issued. An RV or a camper is the last place you want to be during a severe thunderstorms, especially one that could produce a tornado. With over 25,000 folks expected to be on the grounds of the track, this is a very important issue without an easy answer. But, everybody there needs a plan of action; it will be too late if you start thinking about it after a tornado warning is issued.

NICE WEEKEND: The weekend will be dry and cooler. The sky clears Saturday; most of you will be in sunshine by late morning, with a high in the 67-70 degree range. The exception could be the Tennessee Valley of extreme North Alabama where clouds could hang tough much of the day. Sunday will feature maximum available sunshine with a high in the low to mid 70s. A picture perfect day for the running of the Aaron’s 499 at Talladega.

NEXT WEEK: The 12Z GFS keeps Alabama generally dry through Wednesday with the main band of showers and storms to the north; that slow moving surface front could drift down this way with a better chance of rain on Thursday and Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for more long range ideas.

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I had a great time today visiting with the kids at Bumpus Middle School in Hoover… be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News. The next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow….

Tags: severe storms

Category: Alabama's Weather