Chance of White Christmas 1%

| December 24, 2007 @ 1:04 pm | 17 Replies

I’m not giving up completely! The models have been consistent for days now in showing a strong upper-level disturbance moving through tonight and tomorrow. But, the models have not seen enough moisture for significant precipitation. With those big upper level shortwaves, I have not yet posted the 0%, and still am not!

NAM 500 mb

Suddenly today, the NAM, GFS, UKMET, and Canadian are showing some moisture and precipitation developing during the day tomorrow east of I-65, with moderate rain in Atlanta.

UKMET precipitation

Looking at the favorable factors for snowflakes somewhere in Alabama…the strong upper-level disturbance will create upward motion, cooling the atmosphere. Also, with dry air in place at low-levels, any precipitation that does fall will evaporatively cool the atmosphere. And, the 00 UTC model runs were showing the precip only as far west as Atlanta, and now the 12 UTC is showing it as far west as Anniston or maybe Birmingham.

NAM 850 mb (temps below 0 C at 850 typically mean snow if precip if present)

If the 12 UTC models are correct, there could be some light rain in east Alabama tomorrow, and with the cooling mechanisms, there could be a few snow flakes mixed in, mainly in the higher elevations (Mt. Cheaha, and in NE Alabama). So, while no accumulations are likely at all, I’m still keeping hope alive for a snow flake somewhere in Alabama tomorrow!

If the model trend continues and spreads heavier precipitation west into Birmingham tomorrow, maybe we’ll see a snow flake or two here. Probably not. But, I’ll write one more of these updates tonight after the 00 UTC model runs come in…just for fun!

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