Sprinkles Heading Out

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Cold core lows can provide some interesting challenges, and the one affecting us right now has done just that. I know my forecast yesterday was a bit optimistic on temperatures which I have now scaled back appropriately. And the moisture field is rather impressive when you look at radar. Unfortunately the lower portion of the atmosphere according to last nights sounding was very dry below 700 millibars. So it would appear that what little rain occurs across Central Alabama this morning will be along and east of Interstate 59 and I would not expect more than a few hundredths of an inch at best.

That rain and the clouds should be headed out today as the 500 millibar trough zips off to the east-northeast. And a second trough follows closely on the heels of this one bringing some rain possibility to the area late Wednesday afternoon and into the overnight hours. Once again, though, there is not going to be a lot of moisture to work with, so what rain I think we might see will be light.

The big news is that the HPC boys are forecasting over 4 inches of rain for Central Alabama for the end of the week. The models suggest that this could be a good rain event for us, but 4 inches sounds a bit too optimistic as I write this. And I would love to see this come true. With the rain also comes a severe weather threat and SPC has the area from Birmingham to Mobile in a slight risk area. The main threat appears to come in the late afternoon and into the overnight hours. While there are lots of parameters coming together such as good forcing and a strong low level jet, there is still some question as to how far north higher dew points will surge. Projected soundings seem supportive of supercells, so we’ll need to be watchful as to how this system ultimately unfolds.

The pattern continues to be progressive with another system late Saturday or Sunday. This one is followed by another one that the GFS paints very strongly with a big cut off low over Northern Mexico. But this is stepping into the edge of voodoo country so my confidence is not especially high on the solution. If the GFS is right, a southwesterly flow aloft will keep Central Alabama in a mild regime with fairly significant chances for rain about every two to three days.

Merry Christmas to all the Blog readers out there. I hope your Christmas is a wonderful time for each of you. I will have another Weather Xtreme Video posted a bit later tomorrow morning as I will be filling in for Jason Simpson on Good Morning Alabama. God bless.

-Brian-

PS I would love to see snow, but it seems that even the most loyal snow promoters will have to throw in the towel for a White Christmas in Birmingham for another year.

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