Much Milder and Rain Ahead

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What a difference a few hours can make. I was somewhat surprised to see the temperature reading this morning when I got up – 40 degrees. While the warm up was expected, I thought we’d be a bit lower overnight. The temperature trace from my weather station showed how the warming kicked in yesterday and we just did not see a rapid drop in temperature last night – combination of some warm air advection and clouds.

So mild weather returns – just can’t help but love the Southeast US where it can be down to 18 degrees and within 36 hours we’ve back to mild conditions once again. Clouds are in the forecast today as a short wave moves by in the upper atmosphere and the surface high migrates eastward off the Southeast Atlantic coast. That brings moisture back, too, so there is an outside chance of some patchy rain or a brief shower this afternoon and this evening. But I really suspect that most of us will see no rain.

Dry and mild for your Sunday but then more changes begin as the next weather system comes our way. And this one will have some moisture to work with, so I expect to see one half to one inch from Central Alabama toward the northwest corner of the state. The drought is still with us, so let’s hope that this January will bring some good rains to help ease our dry situation. The SPC has outlooked an area centered on Arkansas for Monday and Monday night, or day 3. I don’t think that this system will be a severe weather producer for us.

Yet another system is poised to bring rain late Thursday to Central Alabama with another trough moving quickly across the Central US. Neither of these two systems is expected to bring especially cold air with them as each are rooted in Pacific air masses.

But the GFS is posing some interesting questions for the 12th and 13th. The front which comes through here late Thursday is still lying across the Gulf on Saturday and Sunday, the 12th and 13th. A strong short wave coming down the west side of the trough helps to deepen the trough with a strong short wave that may generate a surface low in the northern Gulf. Now, we’ve crossed over into voodoo land, so there is not specific forecast here. But the whole scenario bears watching since the GFS has maintained this pattern at least since yesterday. The combination of the deep trough, the strong short wave, and the surface low in the Gulf can spell some nasty winter weather for someone in the Southeast.

Further into voodoo country, the GFS keeps the deep trough and cold weather in place for several days before it finally warms up on the 16th only to turn colder again on the 17th as another deep trough comes into the picture on the 18th. This one appears short-lived as a zonal flow returns by the 20th. But certainly some great possibilities to discuss as we see how the whole thing shakes out. But before we deal with the BIG event we’ve got two other events to go through before that one – just take them one at a time.

Thanks for stopping by our video post. I hope you have a great weekend. I’ll have the next Weather Xtreme Video posted around 8-ish tomorrow morning. God bless.

-Brian-

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