Mostly Dry, Hot Weather Continues

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ALABAMA REMAINS CALM: I must admit it is pretty difficult to watch the video coming out of Joplin, Missouri this morning… the death toll is at least 89, and will probably go higher. We will know much more about this tornado later; it struck the Southwest Missouri community around 5:40, and it looks like the lead time was about 25 minutes on the warning. A YouTube search will reveal dozens of riveting videos.

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: All of the really active weather will remain northwest of Alabama, and we stay under the ridge, meaning generally dry and very warm weather for this part of the state. A storm or two could creep down across the Tennessee border later today or this evening, but like yesterday most of them should stay north of the Tennessee River. And, we note severe weather is possible all three days for places northwest of our state. SPC just sent out a note indicating they will upgrade parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri to a moderate risk for today and tonight; this includes the Joplin area.

Around here, our highs will stay in the 87-90 degree range…. some spots over West Alabama could see 91 or 92.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY: The upper ridge finally breaks down, allowing a thunderstorm complex to roll into Alabama late Wednesday night, or early Thursday morning. These storms could pack a punch, but they should be weakening as they move into Alabama. And, it remains to be seen if the air can recover from the morning storms for another round of active weather Thursday afternoon. SPC has not defined a severe weather risk, and quite frankly at this stage of the game, there are more questions than answers about the severe weather potential.

Bottom line is that there is some chance of strong to severe storms Thursday, but for now it doesn’t look like a really serious threat. Certainly nothing like April 27… that was a generational severe weather event for Alabama and you probably won’t deal with anything like that in your lifetime in terms of the widespread, catastrophic nature of the tornado damage.

On the positive side, we project 1/2 to 1 inch of rain Thursday… something we really need since conditions are getting very dry across Central Alabama.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: Most of the showers will be east of Alabama on Friday… and the Memorial Day weekend is looking generally dry and very warm. Highs will be in the 86-89 degree range Saturday through Monday, and with an upper ridge in place, the chance of an afternoon shower looks tiny, and we won’t mention it in the formal forecast.

BEACH WEATHER: Just about that time… school is ending, and time for a family beach trip. The weather on the Gulf Coast (from Panama City west to Gulf Shores) looks mostly dry through Wednesday. Scattered showers and storms are possible Thursday and Friday, but the holiday weekend looks rain-free Saturday through Monday. Highs along the immediate coast will be in the low to mid 80s, and the sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this morning was 78 degrees (F).

LONG RANGE: The weather looks mostly dry and very warm as we roll into June next week. We do note the 00Z GFS shows a strong upper trough over the eastern U.S. around June 8… but that is all voodoo… see the Weather Xtreme video for details.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Tonight, we will talk lead times and other severe weather warning performance metrics with Brent McAloney, who is in charge of the NWS Storm Data and Warning Verification programs.

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Today is the last school weather program of the 2010-11 school year… simply hard to believe. I will be at Chalkville Elementary this morning… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!

Tags: warm

Category: Alabama's Weather