WARM WEDNESDAY: With a partly sunny sky, we are forecasting a high around 80 degrees this afternoon, a little above the average high of 75 for April 18. Then, tonight, there is a small risk of a brief passing shower thanks to a cold front passing through. Moisture will be very limited, and most communities will stay dry.
WARM, DRY TODAY: We will forecast one more warm, dry day for Alabama; the sky will be partly to mostly sunny today with a gusty south wind developing this afternoon averaging 12-22 mph. The high will at or just over 80 degrees for most places. To the west, severe storms will likely form this afternoon and tonight over parts of East Oklahoma, East Texas, North Louisiana, and much of Arkansas ahead of a deep surface low near Omaha. We should mention blizzard conditions will develop north and west of that low.
WARM, DRY MONDAY: With a partly sunny sky, we project a high close to 80 degrees this afternoon. Clouds increase late tonight, and tomorrow will be a mostly cloudy, mild day with only an outside risk of a shower. The high tomorrow will be in the 76-80 degree range for most North/Central Alabama communities.
LATE WINTER WARMTH: Temperatures are close to 80 degrees across North/Central Alabama again this afternoon, but the persistent upper air pattern responsible for the warmth is beginning to break down, meaning some big weather changes over the weekend for Alabama.
WEEKEND STORMS: I think a decent part of the day tomorrow will be dry; showers should be widely scattered. A warm south wind will increase, averaging 10-20 mph by afternoon. Then, late tomorrow night, the cold front that has been parked just north and west of Alabama will get a southward nudge, and will bring a band of showers and thunderstorms into the state. SPC has a “slight risk” of severe storms defined for Northwest Alabama, west of a line from Huntsville to Jasper to Reform, with a “marginal risk” down to Gadsden, Birmingham, and Reform.
WEEKEND STORMS: Saturday will be a warm, breezy day with a high close to 80; a few scattered showers are possible. But, an organized band of rain and storms will move through late Saturday night into at least Sunday morning. SPC maintains the standard “slight risk” of severe storms for areas west of a line from Huntsville to Blount Springs to Northport to Emelle. A “marginal risk” has been defined for Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston, and Gadsden.
RADAR CHECK: A band of showers and storms is draped over Northwest Alabama this morning, just ahead of a cold front near the northwest tip of the state. The rest of the state is dry, and for most places, today will be just like yesterday. A mix of sun and clouds, record warmth this afternoon with a high around 80 degrees and only isolated showers. The band of rain over Northwest Alabama will diminish later today.
ON THE MAP: The cold front, representing the leading edge of very cold air over the western two-thirds of the nation, has actually slipped into the northwest corner of Alabama. Muscle Shoals has dropped into the upper 60s, but the rest of the state remains at record warmth with temperatures near 80.
A NATION DIVIDED: A very high amplitude upper air pattern continues over North America, with a deep upper trough over the western half of the continental U.S… and a strong upper ridge over the East Coast. It is cold and icy over the western two-thirds of the nation, but blowtorch warmth continues across the Deep South and the eastern states…
TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT RECORD LEVELS: As of 3:00, Birmingham’s maximum temperature today is 78; that ties the record high for February 20, last set in 1986. One of the warmest places in the state is Tuscaloosa with 80 degrees… that is one degree shy of the record high for the date, 81 set in 2014. We have a mix of sun and clouds, and a few isolated showers are over Southeast Alabama… mostly east of I-65, and south of I-85. Those showers will dissipate once the sun goes down.
RECORD BREAKING WEEK: These new daily record highs were established across Alabama yesterday…
Birmingham 78 (old record was 76 in 2011, 1986, and 1971)
Anniston 78 (old record was 76 in 2011 and 1971)
Huntsville 77 (old record was 75 in 1939)
Montgomery soared to 82, missing the record high by one degree (83 set in 1891). Mobile’s high was 80, missing the record by three degrees.
WARM LATE WINTER AFTERNOON: Birmingham is reporting 78 degrees at 3:00… that is a new record high for February 19, beating the old record of 76 set in 1986. Huntsville is also in record territory at 77…
HOLY HIGH AMPLITUDE: A very high amplitude upper air pattern is setting up over the continental U.S. this week… a very cold upper trough will be over the western states, but we will be influenced by a strong upper high over the east. This will set up blowtorch warmth over the eastern and southern states this week, with potential for record warmth.
BIG CHANGES AHEAD: We project a high in the low 70s today, almost 20 degrees above average for January 11, and not far from the record high of 78, set in 1949. Quite the contrast to the weather on this date in 1982, when Birmingham dropped to -1F, one day before a crippling ice storm started.
RADAR CHECK: Showers are widely scattered across Alabama this afternoon, otherwise we have a layer of broken clouds with temperatures mostly in the 70s. There is a risk of stronger storms to the west over North Mississippi in coming hours; some of those could drift into Alabama late tonight, but they should be weakening and no severe weather is expected in our state.
