QUIET MORNING: The sky is mostly fair across Alabama this morning; we will rise into the low 80s today with a mix of sun and clouds… a few showers could show up this afternoon or tonight, but they should be widely scattered.
SUMMER IN OCTOBER: As expected, we have a good supply of sunshine across Alabama this afternoon with temperatures in the 88-91 degree range for most communities. Showers are just about impossible to find. The weather won’t change much over the weekend with mostly sunny days, fair nights, and only isolated afternoon showers. Highs will be close to 90 tomorrow, and in the upper 80s Sunday.
SUMMER-LIKE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND: A strong upper high will remain anchored over the Deep South through the weekend, meaning little change in our weather. Mostly sunny days, fair nights, highs in the 87-92 degree range… about 10 degrees above average for early October in Alabama. A few small, short lived showers are possible each afternoon, but the chance of any one community seeing rain is only 5-10 percent.
BONE CRUSHING SUBSIDENCE: A strong upper high is over Alabama, and the associated sinking air (subsidence) is preventing any showers from forming. We have a field of fair weather cumulus clouds over the state, and with a good supply of sunshine temperatures are in the 87-91 degree range, ten degrees above average for early October in Alabama.
RIDGE RULES: A strong upper ridge will hold across Alabama and the Deep South, along with much of the eastern U.S., through the weekend. This means more of the same; mostly sunny days, fair nights, and afternoon temperatures well above average with highs mostly in the 88-91 degree range. Afternoon showers, while possible, will remain few and far between…. odds of any one spot getting wet are only around 5 percent each day. So small that we won’t mention it in our formal forecast.
ENDLESS SUMMER: A strong upper high will remain parked over the eastern third of the nation for the next five to seven days, meaning temperatures here will remain well above average. And, while we are experiencing October heat, many places in Montana are seeing their first snow of the season.
AUGUST, OR OCTOBER? A strong upper high will remain the big player in Alabama weather for the next five to seven days, meaning little change in our weather through the weekend. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees above average during the afternoon hours, with highs in the 87 to 90 degree range. Mostly sunny days, fair nights, and few, if any showers. Chance of any one spot getting wet each afternoon is only in the 5 to 10 percent range, not really high enough to mention in our formal forecast.
OCTOBER HEAT: The average high for Birmingham today (October 2) is 80; temperatures this afternoon are generally in the 85 to 89 degree range with a good supply of sunshine. As usual, Tuscaloosa is the hot spot with 90 degrees. We note a few very small, isolated showers over the northern third of the state… they will end once the sun goes down later this evening.
UPPER HIGH RULES: We are thankful the upper high broke down last week, which allowed most of Alabama to get some beneficial rain; Birmingham’s official total for the week was 3.43″, but some places had over five inches of rain during the week. It was needed since October is usually our driest month of the year. It was also a week when many communities enjoyed highs in the 70s with the clouds and rain.
But… the ridge is back. That means unseasonable warmth, and few, if any showers. Chance of any one spot getting wet later today is only about one in five, and odds are even lower each day for the rest of the week.
REST OF THE WEEK: A strong upper high will rebuild across the Deep South in coming days, meaning unseasonably warm afternoons and few, if any showers with mostly sunny days, fair nights.. The chance of any one spot getting wet tomorrow is only about one in five, and even lower each day for the rest of the week (10 percent or less). Afternoon highs will rise into the mid 80s tomorrow, followed by upper 80s Wednesday through Friday. The average high for Birmingham this week (the first week of October) is in the upper 70s.
We are forecasting a partly sunny sky today, and scattered showers and storms are expected to form in random places this afternoon and early tonight. Chance of any one community seeing rain is in the 30/40 percent range, and the high will be in the 82-85 degree range.
RADAR CHECK: We have a few showers in progress in a broad zone from Prattville to Alexander City to Roanoke, near a cold front that has become stationary across Central Alabama. To the north, we have a mix of sun and clouds with temperatures between 75 and 80 degrees in most communities. Those showers will end this evening, and tonight will be mostly fair and pleasant. Some of the cooler pockets across North Alabama could reach the 50s tomorrow morning.
GETTING DRY AROUND HERE: Today will be the 14th consecutive day with no measurable rain for Birmingham (based on data at Birmingham-Shttlesworth Airport). The total since January 1 is 21.87?, and our surplus for the year is down to 1.42?. We note Anniston now has a deficiency of 1.47? for 2018.
FEELING LIKE SUMMER: Temperatures are in the 85-90 degree range over most of Alabama this afternoon with a good supply of sunshine through scattered fair weather cumulus clouds. No showers are on radar over Alabama as I write this at mid-afternoon, although we note one lone storm has formed near Columbus, Mississippi
SUMMER PREVIEW CONTINUES: A very warm and mostly dry pattern will continue across our state through the weekend. We might see a few isolated showers, mainly over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama tomorrow, but most communities will stay rain-free. Highs will be in the 86-90 degree range through Friday, and then pretty close to 90 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Some spots, especially over West Alabama, could see low 90s, making it the hottest weekend so far this year.
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY: Not much change in the Alabama weather situation; mostly sunny warm days, fair nights. We will mention the chance of isolated showers Thursday and Friday afternoon over the northern third of the state, but even there many places will stay dry. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s.
BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN: We are forecasting a warm, dry day fo Alabama today with ample sunshine along with a high in the mid 80s. The average high for May 8 (for Birmingham) is 80. Pretty much the same situation tomorrow; warm and dry with most spots seeing a high in the mid 80s.
MID-WEEK: Tomorrow and Wednesday will be warm and dry with a good supply of sunshine; we project a high in the mid 80s both days…. just a few degrees above average for mid May. We will mention the chance of a shower in a few spots late Thursday afternoon… best coverage will be over the Tennessee Valley of far North Alabama. Once again, temperatures should reach the mid 80s Thursday afternoon.
