Rain And Storms To Return Thursday
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THIS AFTERNOON: All is quiet across Alabama this afternoon; temperatures are in the 87-90 degree range in most spots with a partly sunny sky. Clouds are a little thicker over Northwest Alabama; those are blow-off clouds from severe storms over Northeast Arkansas, where tornado warnings have been issued this afternoon. Those storms will remain well to the north of Alabama tonight.
TOMORROW/WEDNESDAY: Not much change. We stay mostly dry and very warm, with highs not too far from 90, while severe storms remain possible northwest of Alabama. A moderate risk of severe weather is up tomorrow from near Wichita Falls, Texas to Kansas City, with the standard slight risk in effect all the way from West Texas to New York City.
THURSDAY: This is our next chance of organized showers and thunderstorms. While there is decent upper air support, instability values, lapse rates, and shear values are somewhat marginal for a major severe wether outbreak. The NAM is showing STP (significant tornado parameter) values under 1, which is somewhat comforting (anything OVER one is significant… on April 27 the STP was pegged at 10.
The 12Z GFS is a little slower, and it does hold off the main round of showers and storms until the afternoon and evening hours. This, of course, is when the air tends to be a little more unstable, so we will certainly have to mention some risk of strong to severe storms, but for now it doesn’t look like an overly serious threat, but we must remember we live in a state on edge after the April 27 outbreak. We will keep you posted on our thoughts as the event gets closer.
FRIDAY AND THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: The upper trough weakens across the Deep South Friday, but it looks like we might need to hang on to some risk of lingering showers or a non-severe storm. Then, the holiday weekend is still looking generally dry and warm. A strong disturbance passes well to the north of Alabama over the weekend, and a trailing front might kick off a few scattered showers Saturday and Sunday, but at this point it doesn’t look like the rain will be widespread, and as an upper ridge builds, heat levels will be rising. Monday looks dry and hot with a high near 90 degrees.
LONG RANGE: June should begin with hot and dry weather thanks to the ridge… no sign of any serious weather changes for the first 6-8 days of the new month. See the Weather Xtreme video for details… soon we will be in that good ole summer routine with hot muggy weather daily along with some risk of “scattered, mostly afternoon and evening showers and storms”.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CDT… you can listen/watch live via uStream here.
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I had a great time today visiting with the kindergarten kids at Chalkville Elementary… the last stop on the school tour for the 2010-11 school year. Be looking for them on the Pepsi KIDCAM today at 5:00 on ABC 33/40 News… the next Weather Xtreme video will be posted by 7:00 a.m. tomorrow…
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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