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High Risk Today OK/KS

| May 24, 2011 @ 5:54 am | Reply

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ALABAMA STAYS DRY: While our weather stays hot for May and dry, a major tornado threat is shaping up today for parts of the Southern Plains, where SPC has forecast a high risk of severe weather for parts of Oklahoma and Kansas. The probability of a tornado with 25 miles of a given point within the high risk is 30 percent, which is a very high number, but not as high as the 45 percent chance we had on April 27 within our high risk that day. It will be a long day for our friends in Oklahoma City and Wichita.

Here at home; the sky will be partly sunny with a high in the 87-90 degree range. Any showers will be confined to the far northern part of the state, mainly north of the Tennessee River, where we actually have a shower or two on radar this morning near the Shoals.

TOMORROW: SPC has defined a moderate risk of severe weather from near El Dorado, Arkansas to Indianapolis… this includes places like Memphis and Paducah, but around here we stay dry with a high between 87 and 90 like recent days.

THURSDAY: No doubt that rain and storms will return, and the question involves the possibility of severe weather in Alabama. From a synoptic standpoint, no doubt conditions favor strong storms with a healthy upper trough just to the west, providing upper diffluence and a favorable jet structure. But, we note at this time SPC has defined any formal severe weather risk for Alabama as other parameters remain somewhat marginal.

The RPM suggests some type of MCS (thunderstorm complex) will move into Alabama during the morning hours Thursday. This, most likely, is what is leftover from the activity that is expected over Arkansas, West Tennessee, and the Mississippi Delta tomorrow night. The prime risk of Alabama with this would be from damaging straight line winds within bowing line segments.

And, if we do have a morning round of storms, that could very mean the airmass might not recover for any additional strong storms later in the day.

Watch the Weather Xtreme video for all of the graphics… the STP (significant tornado parameter) remains less than one for most of the state, and instability and helicity values remain pretty marginal for a big severe weather day. This will be absolutely nothing like April 27, but clearly we need to mention at least some risk for strong to severe storms Thursday, with the main risk coming from straight line winds. We will keep a close eye on the situation as it gets closer.

On the positive side, we are projecting 1/2 to 1 inch of rain Thursday, which we really need.

FRIDAY: The upper trough responsible for Thursday’s active weather will fizzle out, and we will mention some risk of a stray shower, but a good part of the day should be dry with a high in the mid 80s.

MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND: A strong upper ridge will develop, meaning dry and hot weather for the unofficial summer kickoff. Highs will be in the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday, with low 90s likely Monday. We might even be looking at mid 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday as the ridge takes over.

AT THE BEACH: We expect sunny days and fair nights through Thursday; a few widely scattered showers and storms could show up Friday and Saturday, but even on those days you can expect 6 to 8 hours of sunshine. Then, dry and warm weather is the story Sunday and Monday. Highs throughout the week should be in the low 80s, and the ocean water is running in the upper 70s along the Alabama Gulf Coast.

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. Scroll down for the show notes on this week’s new episode.

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James Spann Jason Simpson Ashley Brand
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I will be speaking today to the senior adults at the First United Methodist Church of Talladega… be looking for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so. Enjoy the day!

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Category: Alabama's Weather

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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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