A Few Blips On The Radar

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STORMS REMAIN ISOLATED: Warm air aloft is killing off the thunderstorms that try to form over the northern half of Alabama this afternoon. Shortly after 3:00, you could count the number of showers on one hand, and less than one percent of the land area is getting wet. One decent little shower is over Northport as I write this, but it should be long gone by the time you read this.

Storms are much numerous over Southwest Alabama again today, where heavy rain is falling in spots in the broad area from Montgomery to Mobile. Heavier storms at 3:00 were near Beatrice in Monroe County, and near Loxley in Baldwin County along I-10.

The temperature at 500 mb (a little over 18,000 feet off the ground) this afternoon over Birmingham is minus 8.5 degrees (C), or 18 degrees (F). Not much change from yesterday… you can keep an eye on that number for a decent clue on thunderstorm possibilities. The warmer it is, storms will be hard to find. But, when temperatures at this level begin to cool, that opens the door for a better coverage of afternoon showers and storms. But, even then, they will be scattered.

And, of course, the weather is hot. Birmingham and Anniston are showing 95 degrees at 3:00… Tuscaloosa is down to 83 thanks to that shower near the airport.

THE DAYS AHEAD: The overall pattern simply won’t change much through the weekend. Hot hazy days, fair nights, and the risk of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures aloft are expected to cool just slightly, so maybe we will see a bit of an increase in the number of afternoon storms by Friday and the weekend, but don’t count on it. Prospects of widespread rain just don’t look good for a while.

NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND: We do note the GFS tries to move the main axis of the upper ridge to the west early next week, which might open the door for a northwest flow MCS to impact Alabama, but that is just an outside chance. I still believe persistence is the best forecast going forward; highs in the mid 90s, hot and hazy days, and the daily risk of widely scattered afternoon storms.

TROPICS: The Atlantic basin is quiet, and tropical storm formation is not expected through the weekend.

AT THE BEACH: No big change for the next seven days from Panama City to Gulf Shores. About 7 to 9 hours of sunshine each day with a few scattered showers and storms. The sea water temperature at the Dauphin Island Sea Lab this afternoon is 83.6 degrees (F).

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Tags: hot

Category: Alabama's Weather