Early Morning Flash Flooding Issues

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OVERNIGHT RAIN: We often mention the difficulty in forecasting coverage and placement of thunderstorms during the summer season in Alabama. It all depends on very small variations in temperatures aloft and surface boundaries. Seems like a weak surface trough is near I-20, and has resulted in a persistent band of overnight showers and storms dropping very heavy amounts of rain. Flash flood warnings for Clay and Talladega Counties have expired, and the one for northern Jefferson County will continue until 8:30.

Looks like some spots, based on radar estimates, have seen over four inches of rain since last night. Some of the heaviest rain as I write this is over Fayette, Walker, St. Clair, and Calhoun Counties. Showers and storm are moving “backwards”… from east to west thanks to easterly winds aloft on the bottom of the upper high to the north.

REST OF THE DAY: The morning showers and storms will fade a little later, and additional rain will develop this afternoon. Could very well be that the afternoon storms are to the south, on the outflow of the morning storms. But, anyone could see a passing shower or thunderstorm this afternoon or this evening. The high will be at or just over 90 where the sun comes out, but where clouds hang tough, highs will be in the 80s.

TOMORROW AND THE WEEKEND: The blanket of moist air goes nowhere, and accordingly we will roll with a persistence forecast. Hot humid days with a mix of sun and clouds and the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in the low 90s, and while most of the showers and storms will come during the afternoon and evening hours, we can’t rule out a late night or morning shower.

NEXT WEEK: While the weather probably won’t change much early in the week, the GFS suggests the upper high will grow stronger later in the week with rising heat levels and decreasing rain chances Wednesday through Friday. See the Weather Xtreme video for details.

BRET AND CINDY: No, they are not sitting in a tree, but they are in the Atlantic Ocean east of the U.S. mainland. Bret is in the process of fizzling out, and Cindy is a stronger storm, but will become extra-tropical soon over the North Atlantic. These will not impact any land mass, and the Gulf and the Caribbean are very quiet for now.

AT THE BEACH: Expect about 6 to 8 hours of sunshine on a daily basis along the Central Gulf Coast from Panama City west to Gulf Shores. There will be a few scattered showers and storms around, and the high along the immediate coast will be near or just over 90 on most days. Sea water temperatures are running mostly in the mid 80s.

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Look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 this afternoon…. enjoy the day!

Tags: storms

Category: Alabama's Weather