Waiting and Watching Emily

Folks from South Florida to North Carolina are keeping one eye on Tropical Storm Emily.

It has been bringing heavy rain to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Storm rainfall totals over Haiti and the Dominican Republic are expected to be 6-12 inches.

The storm’s convection started to increase late yesterday despite wind shear and the proximity to the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola.

In 24 hours, those two factors will be out of the way, and Emily should start to intensify. By late Thursday night, Emily could be emerging over the warm waters just off the northeast coast of Cuba.

The official forecast has been reluctant to bring it up to hurricane status, and the NHC still doesn’t until it is well north of the Bahamas. Could see some surprises here.

The northwestward turn that has been forecast is in response to a trough developing over the eastern U.S. If that fails to pick up the storm, a path toward Miami and perhaps even the Gulf of Mexico is not out of the question.

The GFDL model has a category two hurricane near Miami early Saturday morning, moving up the eastern coast of Florida, exiting near Melbourne and then curving gradually out to sea without affecting the Carolinas.

We’ll be watching.

Category: Tropical