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Hot, Hazy Summer Days

| August 18, 2011 @ 3:20 pm | 2 Replies

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HOT SUMMER WEATHER ROLLS ALONG: Temperatures at 3:00 are generally in the low to mid 90s, at forecast levels for the day. The exception is Northwest Alabama, and communities near the Mississippi border, where they are only in the 80s due to clouds associated with thunderstorms moving south over Mississippi. That storm complex will, most likely, remain west of Alabama this evening, and most communities around here will stay dry tonight… although we do note one lone thunderstorm over northern Cleburne County at 3:15.

TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY: No major changes are expected… hot hazy days, highs in the low to mid 90s, and the risk of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The one thing to watch, however, is the surprise thunderstorm mass in the northwest flow aloft that can happen at almost any hour of the day or night, and computer models are little help in identifying them far in advance.

NEXT WEEK: A weak front will move into Alabama late Monday or Monday night, but the GFS continues the trend of little in the way of really organized rain with this feature. The front will probably stall out and fizzle out over Alabama Tuesday. Bottom line is that we will pretty much roll with a persistence forecast for now for much of next week.

TROPICS: The tropical wave over the Caribbean is running out of time, but still has come chance of becoming Tropical Storm Harvey before moving into Central America tomorrow night. This will not impact the Gulf of Mexico at all.

The one to watch is the trailing wave over the Atlantic between the Leeward Islands and the coast of Africa. This should become Tropical Storm Irene (assuming the Caribbean wave gets the name Harvey) over the weekend, and it is a very real threat for the Southeast U.S. next week. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for complete details… the 12Z GFS moves this system over Key West, followed by a north turn toward Tampa Bay, and then into Georgia. This track would keep Alabama on the dry west side of the system.

However, we note the ECMWF shows the system over the South-Central Gulf of Mexico in about 10 days, with a much greater threat to the Central Gulf Coast.

Gut feeling here says the GFS will probably be correct with the more easterly track, but nobody knows at this point. We will keep an eye on things in coming days.

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Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.

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