Conditions Improving

Weather enthusiasts across the Southeast have been watching the Gulf of Mexico for the last several days as a weak disturbance has moved steadily northwesterly, perhaps more north-northwesterly. Satellite imagery early this afternoon showed a lot of convection in and around the Central Gulf in an area centered about 200 miles south of the Louisiana coast. The convection was limited on the west and southwest sides of the area which was quite broad at midday.

The likelihood of this developing into a tropical depression is fairly high – up to 80 percent on the National Hurricane Center’s latest statement. Animation would suggest that a circulation may be forming. The wind shear aloft has not been favorable, but the latest wind shear analysis showed that the amount of shear was decreasing which would favor development. Sea surface temperatures are also warm – on the order of 31 degrees C or higher.

NHC also noted that a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate conditions there during the afternoon.

Model guidance which has been all over the board for the last couple of days seems to be coming into better agreement. While the models are not closely clustered in their respective tracks, they are in general agreement of a northerly track toward Southeast Louisiana with a gradual turn toward the northeast into southern Mississippi and eventually Alabama.

No one wants to see a big storm, but the proximity to land plus anticipated slow development could be just the thing for bringing some clouds and rain to the Southeast. August was not much in the rainfall department, so much of the Southeast could use some rain. A slow moving tropical depression might be just the thing to help out on the rain plus knocking some degrees off the summer heat!!

-Brian-

Category: Alabama's Weather