Tropical Rains Ahead

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RIGHT NOW: Widely scattered showers have formed over the northern third of Alabama, generally along and north of U.S. 278. These showers are moving slowly to the southwest; we also note some have formed in East Alabama around Anniston at 3:00. All of these showers will fade away this evening once the sun goes down. Temperatures are generally in the low to mid 90s.

And, to the south, tropical showers are over coastal counties of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle, with the most widespread rain offshore.

EYES ON THE GULF: Confidence is growing in the forecast scenario for the Deep South and the Gulf Coast states through early next week as a tropical storm forms in the northern Gulf. Due to light steering currents, this system has potential to bring extremely heavy rain and serious flooding to Southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle for the next five days. Some communities could see over one foot of rain, and flash flood watches are being raised now for these places. A tropical storm watch most likely will be needed for the Gulf Coast tomorrow morning.

Scroll down and you will see a report from Panama City Beach, where the public beaches have been closed due to rip tides and rough surf.

FOR NORTH/CENTRAL ALABAMA: We don’t expect much change in the weather through Saturday. Partly sunny, hot, humid days with widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be mostly in the low 90s.

FOOTBALL WEATHER: Mostly fair weather for the high school games tonight and tomorrow night; kickoff temperatures will be around 90, falling through the 80s during the game. I can’t completely rule out the risk of an isolated shower somewhere around here, but most stadiums will be dry.

College football gets underway this weekend. Alabama hosts Kent State at Bryant Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa; the kickoff will come shorty before 11:30 Saturday morning; the sky will be partly sunny with a kickoff temperature of around 92 degrees, rising into the mid 90s during the game. The chance of a shower during the game is only in the 20 percent range. Auburn hosts Utah State at Jordan-Hare Stadium; at the 11:00 a.m. kickoff the temperature should be near 87 degrees, rising into the low 90s by the fourth quarter. For now we will project a slight chance of rain during the game; we will keep an eye on potential Tropical Storm Lee for any greater impact.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY: Deep tropical moisture from the system in the Gulf will set the stage for a beneficial and significant rain event on these two days. The good news is that the 12Z model set is in much better agreement, and we will forecast rain and a few thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday, with potential for heavy rain at times. Highs drop into the 80s with clouds and rain.

There is a chance the rain could linger into Tuesday, and maybe even Wednesday, as the tropical circulation creeps through Alabama at a snail’s pace. It is very possible that parts of North/Central Alabama could see two to five inches of rain Sunday through Wednesday with flooding not out of the question. Quite the answer to prayer for a state that has been very dry through August.

We should mention that you can have small, spin-up tornadoes in spiral bands around a landfalling tropical system, but it is way too early to determine if that will be a threat around here early next week.

LABOR DAY WEEKEND ON THE COAST: Needless to say, it will be wet and windy with very rough surf all the way from Gulf Shores east to Panama City through Monday. Rain amounts of 7-14 inches are possible with serious flooding issues developing where the heavier tropical rain bands set up. More than likely, this system will be a tropical storm with the main threat coming from heavy rain, but a few models do bring it up to minimal hurricane strength. One way or another, the rain is the big deal. Conditions should improve on the coast during the latter half of next week.

LEE OR MARIA: Interesting to note NHC has identified a hybrid system in the North Atlantic as one they might upgrade to a tropical storm; if by chance that one snags the name Lee, then the Gulf storm will be called Maria.

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We will keep the blog updated with fresh information on the Gulf of Mexico situation in coming hours and days… stay tuned!

Tags: tropical rain

Category: Alabama's Weather