Rain and Cooler Thanks to Lee

| September 3, 2011 @ 7:52 am | 1 Reply

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Interesting forecast ahead for Central Alabama as we watch Tropical Storm Lee meander ever closer to the Louisiana coast. And the second major player on the weather stage is the trough now located in the North Central US. The interaction of these two will determine our weather over the next several days.

Lee was still a tropical storm this morning, and we can be thankful for that. While the Louisiana coast is being pounded by 30 to 40 mph wind making conditions rough, it could be worse if Lee were a hurricane. Then there is the other big threat which is rainfall. Rainfall totals in the southeast sections of Louisiana could easily approach two feet before the storm gets away from the area.

The trough over the North Central US will move across into the Great Lakes at which time it should influence Lee and cause it to move northeasterly along and just ahead of a cold front coming through the Central US. But Lee will be taking his time as he meanders around southern Louisiana today and tomorrow before beginning the trek toward the northeast.

This means a good day with clouds increasing for Central Alabama. It will stay warm with highs into the mid 90s. But it was interesting to note the temperatures across Alabama yesterday. Muscle Shoals reached 100 while Mobile was the coolest in the state with 78 thanks to the clouds and rain from Lee. We don’t see that kind of north to south gradient too often – the north is usually the coolest and the south the warmest.

With the rain getting here Sunday, we should see temperatures reaching only into the 80s due to the rain and clouds. This will certainly be a welcome relief from the long hot summer we’ve had.

The dry August – while we sputtered about having to water the yards – may have been a blessing allowing us to take a good deal of rain before flooding becomes an issue. And should the rain come over a long enough period, we might escape any really serious flooding. But I do believe that Monday we will be seeing some heavy rains as Lee finally moves northeastward across Central Alabama. I expect to see flash flood watches and there is potential for longer term flooding on rivers and streams. But that will definitely be determined by how much rain does fall. Right now, I would expect to see rainfall totals from Lee between 5 and 9 inches. I know, a big range, but that will be the case with a slow moving storm as the heavier rainfall with some of the bands affects area more than other areas.

Weather begins to improve on Tuesday as the tropical system gets picked up and moves toward the northeast. This paves the way for a trough to set up over the East Coast keeping us in dry weather with lows in the 60s and highs in the 80s.

Monday appears likely to be our wettest day, and I would not be surprised if we saw temperatures staying in the 70s much like what Mobile experienced yesterday.

After Lee departs, it looks like the rest of the week will remain dry and very pleasant. Looking out further it does appear that the westerlies move back northward again allowing temperatures to climb again but without any extreme heat issues. Around the 19th the GFS is suggesting some additional tropical mischief in the western Caribbean, but that is a long way out – but it is also September.

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Stay tuned to the Blog for additional updates as we watch the progress of Lee. Enjoy the day as many of us watch the footfall season get off to a rousing start! Godspeed.

-Brian-

For your meteorological consulting needs, Coleman and Peters, LLC, can provide you with accurate, detailed information on past storms, lightning, flooding, and wind damage. Whether it is an insurance claim needing validation or a court case where weather was a factor, we can furnish you with information you need. Please call us at (205) 568-4401.

Category: Alabama's Weather

About the Author ()

Brian Peters is one of the television meteorologists at ABC3340 in Birmingham and a retired NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist. He handles the weekend Weather Xtreme Videos and forecast discussion and is the Webmaster for the popular WeatherBrains podcast.

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