Great Fall Weather with Some Warming

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Another great Fall weekend as we see a gradual warm up from the chilliest days. Still there was frost this morning and I expect to see patchy frost again on Sunday morning, but not to the extent we’ve seen over the last couple of mornings. With plenty of sunshine today I expect to see afternoon highs climb to near the 70 degree mark – upper 60s most locations.

Sunday should be a near identical copy of today with slight warming to temperatures. A quick moving short wave might bring some clouds to the area on Sunday, but I think the atmosphere remains too dry for much beyond that.

The upper trough edges eastward on Monday as the ridge to our west moves over us. At the same time, a developing short wave over the western US will dampen the ridge to a near zonal pattern for us by Tuesday. The development of the western US trough will bring our flow around to a slight southwesterly direction which should bring us back to highs near 80 at mid-week.

Now comes our next shot at some rain. The trough digs in to the Oklahoma area Thursday which will bring a front closer to Central Alabama. I expect the best chance of rain to come in the afternoon and evening on Thursday and into Friday. We should be clearing out Saturday though some wrap around clouds could once again be a forecast challenge. We should also cool off big time once again as the 540 thickness line is seen to dive into Central Alabama on Friday. While it is still a long way out, the strength of the overall system brings the potential for severe weather. SPC has not outlined a specific threat, but if you read their discussion, you’ll see that they have some concern for this possibility for Thursday into Friday. Definitely something to be mindful of as we watch conditions unfold.

Hopefully next weekend will be another great one for us. The tropics have also become a bit more active with two areas under the watchful eye of NHC. The one east of the Lesser Antilles has little potential for development at this time. However, the disturbed area in the western Caribbean has some potential for developing into a tropical storm. It is close to land which will retard development. The model tracks suggest a north to northwest movement which means it may become a concern for the Gulf early next week. Another one for us to keep an eye on.

Long range forecast trends suggest a fairly regular pattern of traveling weather systems.

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Thanks for staying tuned. I hope you enjoy the day and be sure to catch my forecast on ABC 3340 at 6 and 10 pm today. Godspeed.

-Brian-

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Category: Alabama's Weather