Warm November Weather
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SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON: When you walk out the door this morning you will know it is “too warm for November”… temperatures this morning are in the 60s, and we expect a high somewhere between 74 and 79 degrees this afternoon, with potential for a few isolated 80 degree highs where the sun pops out. The bulk of the rain this morning is well to the north, closer to a surface front, and around here any showers should be widely scattered through tonight.
Severe storms today will be well to the west of Alabama, over parts of Texas, South Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for this region.
As an upper trough and surface front approach, however, showers and storms will increase tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night, and much of Alabama is in the standard “slight risk” of severe weather.
TIMING: Seems like the main window for severe weather in Alabama will come from about 3:00 p.m. tomorrow until 3:00 a.m. Wednesday. The tornado threat does not seem overly high with somewhat marginal SRH values (storm relative helicity), but a few isolated tornadoes are certainly possible during the late afternoon and evening hours with discreet cells that form ahead of the squall line over North and Central Alabama. The main severe weather threat will come from damaging winds with bowing segments along the line tomorrow night as it moves through.
This event is somewhat similar to the event we dealt with last Wednesday; certainly nothing like the major severe weather days we had back in the spring, but still something to watch closely. Watch the Weather Xtreme video for more details and all of the maps.
Lingering showers will end early Wednesday, and we will forecast gradual clearing by Wednesday afternoon, and we turn cooler with a high in the low to mid 60s.
BEAUTIFUL THANKSGIVING DAY: Thursday promises to be a delightful day, with a sunny sky and a high in the 65-68 degree range follow a morning low in the low 40s. And, “Black Friday” will be dry and pleasant with a high in the upper 60s.
WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: The system that will impact Alabama this weekend looks very potent, but it is way too early to be specific about the threat. We have to get the mid-week system out of here before we can really focus on this one, but the dynamic support looks very impressive, and a significant severe weather event is very possible. And, considering this is Iron Bowl weekend, and a weekend on which so many people are traveling, we will have to watch this one with an eagle eye.
At this point, it looks like the main window for severe storms in Alabama will come Saturday night, but that could easily change. I don’t even want to speculate about the arrival of the storms in Auburn… best case scenario is that the storms arrive after the Iron Bowl is over (the game kicks off at 2:30 p.m. CST), but on the other hand there is a real chance there could be strong storms or at least showers around Lee County during the game.
We turn sharply colder after the storms pass, and we won’t get out of the 40s Sunday with clouds and some light rain at times. Some snow is even possible Sunday north of here over West Tennessee and Arkansas if the global models are correct. Take some time to watch the Weather Xtreme video for details.
The cold air lingers into early next week as a huge upper low hangs around just north of here. The GFS is printing highs only in the 40s both Monday and Tuesday.
WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 90 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. We will record this week’s episode tonight at 8:30 p.m. CST…
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I will be doing a weather program today down at Brent Elementary in Bibb County… look for the next Weather Xtreme video here by 3:30 or so this afternoon. Enjoy the day!
Category: Alabama's Weather
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James Spann is one of the most recognized and trusted television meteorologists in the industry. He holds the AMS CCM designation and television seals from the AMS and NWA. He is a past winner of the Broadcast Meteorologist of the Year from both professional organizations.Subscribe
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