Big Changes This Weekend
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THIS AFTERNOON: What a perfect Thanksgiving Day. A cobalt blue sky, temperatures in the 60s, and low humidity. The good news is that tomorrow will be very similar as dry air stays in place. The challenging part of the forecast involves the weekend and the first half of next week.
SATURDAY: Clouds return to Alabama Saturday with a quick return of low level moisture, and I think we have to mention the chance of a few scattered showers by Saturday afternoon, especially over the western half of the state. The day will be mild and breezy with a high near 70; south winds of 10-20 mph will develop, with higher gusts in spots.
IRON BOWL FORECAST: I think we have to mention at least an outside risk of a shower for Saturday’s Iron Bowl in Auburn, which kicks off at 2:30 p.m. Otherwise, the sky will be mostly cloudy with a kickoff temperature near 66 degrees, falling into the low 60s by the final whistle. A south wind of 10-20 mph will be a factor for the kicking game. In terms of percentage, I would say the chance of a shower during the game is only 20 percent for now.
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY: Total model madness here, with the GFS and the ECMWF going in totally different directions, based on the 12Z runs.
The GFS solution is now very progressive, with rain in here from about midnight Saturday night through 9:00 a.m. Sunday. All of the rain is out of the state by midday Sunday, with dry and cool weather for the first half of next week.
The ECMWF, however, cuts off a strong upper low just west/southwest of Alabama, and keeps us wet during the day Sunday, and into Monday, Tuesday, and even Wednesday of next week. See the Weather Xtreme video for all of the maps.
As usual, the truth is probably somewhere in-between, but the ECMWF tends to do better here in the medium range, and we will hang on to clouds and some risk of rain Monday out of respect for that model, and we will make adjustments as we go along over the next few days. We note the ECMWF cut-off solution does not provide thickness values (at least low level values) low enough for snow flakes here.
VOODOO LAND: The 12Z GFS shows another cut-off upper low developing around here in the December 2-3 time frame, followed by a flood of very cold air around December 6-7. But, with the model struggling just a few days out, there is zero confidence in any solution in the medium range. Again, see the Weather Xtreme video for the maps and more details.
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I hope you have enjoyed a blessed and peaceful Thanksgiving Day with your family. I will have the next Weather Xtreme video and discussion posted here tomorrow morning. If you are going shopping tonight or tomorrow, good luck with that! I think I will do my shopping right here from the mighty MacBook Pro…
Category: Alabama's Weather