Rain Returns To Alabama Tonight

An all new edition of the ABC 33/40 Weather Xtreme video is available in the player below, and on iTunes…

We will be dealing with two storm systems during the next five days. The first one coming in here tonight is pretty clear cut, but there are many questions about storm number two due in here this weekend.

TODAY/TONIGHT: While a few showers could break out this afternoon across Northwest Alabama, we believe the bulk of the rain will come from around 6:00 p.m. until 12:00 midnight. The NAM continues to be the wettest model; suggesting 1.21″ for Birmingham. The GFS is probably closer to reality; it is printing 0.94″. We figure everyone will see one-half to one inch of rain tonight, with isolated amounts over one inch.

SPC maintains a slight risk of severe weather for Southwest Alabama; places like Mobile, Atmore, Jackson, and Monroeville. Instability values are just not high enough for severe weather problems over the northern half of the state; in fact the NAM keeps the LI (lifted index) positive through the night.

TOMORROW: Get ready for a shot of much colder air tomorrow. Model numbers continue to come down; the NAM shows a high of only 39 for Birmingham, while the GFS suggests the high tomorrow will be 43. A stiff northwest wind will make those cold temperatures feel even more uncomfortable. We figure the sky will clear during the late morning hours, and sunshine should return by afternoon. A hard freeze is likely tomorrow night, with mid 20s likely by Thursday morning. Coldest spots in North Alabama might even visit the upper teens.

THURSDAY: After the morning freeze, temperatures rebound nicely, and we should rise to near 60 Thursday afternoon with maximum available sunshine.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: This is the tricky period. Clouds should increase during the day Friday, and showers and storms could reach Alabama Friday night in advance of an upper trough over West Texas. However, the GFS is trending toward a solution that holds off on bringing out the main system until Sunday. The 06Z GFS is on this idea, and would suggest some rain at times Friday night and Saturday, followed by showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. This setup would also mean a chance of strong to severe storms on Sunday with a deepening trough to the west, and a surface low passing north of here. But, we really need to get tonight’s system out of here before we feel too confident about that solution.

ARCTIC BLAST EARLY NEXT WEEK: Following the weekend storm system, look for another major shot of cold air on Monday; the GFS MOS is showing 51 for Birmingham; that seems 10 to 15 degrees too warm based on the thickness scheme we see. We might have a hard time getting out of the 30s on Monday.

STORM ALERT 2008 COMES TO NORTHPORT TONIGHT: Our annual severe weather awareness tour comes to Northport tonight. The show will begin at the Northport Civic Center at 7:00, but the doors open at 5:00. This year, we will focus on the 10th anniversary of the April 8, 1998 F5 tornado that killed 32 people in Jefferson County. That same parent thunderstorm dropped another smaller tornado later that killed two people in St. Clair County. We will check on some storm survivors and see how their lives have changed. We will also feature a story on the heroes of the March 1, 2007 tornado that killed 8 students at Enterprise High School in Southeast Alabama. And, some important information about the ongoing drought that is impacting Alabama and the Southeast U.S. See you tonight!

WEATHER BRAINS: Don’t forget you can listen to our weekly 30 minute netcast anytime on the web, or on iTunes. This is the show all about weather featuring many familiar voices, including our meteorologists here at ABC 33/40. You can even listen here on the blog; look for the player on the top left. An all new show is available that focuses on last week’s historic tornado outbreak; Tim Simpson of WREG-TV in Memphis is our special guest.

Another busy day today… I am headed down to Tuscaloosa for a speech this morning at the University Club. I will run back to the office for a while, and hopefully I will have time to crank out another Weather Xtreme video early this afternoon before we head to Northport for the Storm Alert 2008 show. Have a great day!

Category: Uncategorized